CLE — Week 1 at JAX, who allow the 20th-most points to WRs — recently Josh Downs put up 3.4 on them (W17), Elic Ayomanor put up 5 on them (W18).
Isaiah Bond projects 2.1 PPR points in week 1 at JAX — the 20th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 2.4 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs JAX: 231.4 passing yards a game allowed (6.19/attempt) · 1.5 TDs/gm through the air · 1.3 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 20th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how JAX defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 7% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 48.1% offensive snaps · 9.3% target share · 21.4% air-yard share (aDOT 17.1). TD luck: 0 scored vs 2.4 expected — under expectation, positive regression due. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Isaiah Bond in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | @ JAX | Sun, Sep 13 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 20th |
| W2 | @ TB | Sun, Sep 20 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 16th |
| W3 | vs CAR | Sun, Sep 27 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 25th · tough |
| W4 | vs PIT | Thu, Oct 1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 8th · soft |
| W5 | @ NYJ | Sun, Oct 11 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 15th |
| W6 | vs BAL | Sun, Oct 18 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 5th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W18 | CIN | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/2 rec, 13 yd | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| W17 | PIT | 1/1 rec, 16 yd | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| W16 | BUF | 1 car, -1 yd | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| W15 | CHI | 2/4 rec, 89 yd | 8.9 | 9.9 | 10.9 |
| W13 | SF | 1 car, 9 yd · 1/2 rec, 18 yd | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| W12 | LV | 2/2 rec, 58 yd | 5.8 | 6.8 | 7.8 |
| W11 | BAL | 1 car, 8 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| W6 | PIT | 2/5 rec, 9 yd | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| W5 | MIN | 2/7 rec, 29 yd | 2.9 | 3.9 | 4.9 |
| W4 | DET | 3/6 rec, 58 yd | 5.8 | 7.3 | 8.8 |
| W3 | GB | 2/4 rec, 16 yd | 1.6 | 2.6 | 3.6 |
| W2 | BAL | 1 car, 9 yd · 1/3 rec, 6 yd | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| W1 | CIN | 1/1 rec, 5 yd | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |