NYG — Week 9 at PHI, who allow the 29th-most points to TEs — recently Brevyn Spann-Ford put up 1.1 on them (W7), Chig Okonkwo put up 1.2 on them (W8).
Isaiah Likely projects 11.5 PPR points in week 9 at PHI — the 29th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 19.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs PHI: 244 passing yards a game allowed (7.15/attempt) · 1.5 TDs/gm through the air · 0.4 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 29th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how PHI defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 49.5 receiving yards · 30% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 75% offensive snaps · 9 targets/game, 27.1% target share · 21.2% air-yard share (aDOT 8) · 5.9 catches for 56.4 yards/game, 5 TD. 2025 baseline (12 games): 55.9% offensive snaps, 3 targets/game, 12% target share, 12% air-yard share (aDOT 8), 2.3 catches for 25.6 yards/game, 1 TD. (2026) TD luck: 5 scored vs 2.6 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.1 · median 8 · ceiling 20.1 — 41% chance of 10+, 22% of 15+, 11% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Isaiah Likely in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
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| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ PHI | Sun, Nov 8 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 29th · tough |
| W10 | vs WAS | Thu, Nov 12 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 13.5 | 2nd · soft |
| W11 | vs JAX | Sun, Nov 22 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 23rd |
| W12 | @ IND | Sun, Nov 29 | 7.6 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 5th · soft |
| W13 | vs SF | Sun, Dec 6 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 25th · tough |
| W14 | @ SEA | Sun, Dec 13 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 30th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | HOU | 2/4 rec, 12 yd | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| W6 | NO | 6/11 rec, 99 yd, 1 TD | 17.9 | 20.9 | 23.9 |
| W5 | WAS | 11/13 rec, 94 yd, 2 TD | 21.4 | 26.9 | 32.4 |
| W4 | ARI | 7/12 rec, 66 yd | 6.6 | 10.1 | 13.6 |
| W3 | TEN | 2/5 rec, 13 yd | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 |
| W2 | LAR | 5/10 rec, 33 yd | 3.3 | 5.8 | 8.3 |
| W1 | DAL | 8/8 rec, 78 yd, 2 TD | 19.8 | 23.8 | 27.8 |