NYG — Week 2 at LAR, who allow the 26th-most points to TEs — recently Luke Farrell put up 1.9 on them (W1).
27.8 PPR points against DAL on 8/8 rec, 78 yd, 2 TD — beat his 9.6 projection by 18.2. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Isaiah Likely projects 11.1 PPR points in week 2 at LAR — the 26th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 27.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs LAR: 205 passing yards a game allowed (6.03/attempt) · 3 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 26th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how LAR defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 2): 49.5 receiving yards · 25% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 1 game): 49% offensive snaps · 8 targets/game, 27.6% target share · 26.1% air-yard share (aDOT 8) · 8 catches for 78 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (12 games): 55.9% offensive snaps, 3 targets/game, 12% target share, 12% air-yard share (aDOT 8), 2.3 catches for 25.6 yards/game, 1 TD. (2025) TD luck: 1 scored vs 1.9 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.4 · median 7.7 · ceiling 17.5 — 38% chance of 10+, 15% of 15+, 6% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Isaiah Likely in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ LAR | Mon, Sep 21 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 26th · tough |
| W3 | vs TEN | Sun, Sep 27 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 15th |
| W4 | vs ARI | Sun, Oct 4 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 13th |
| W5 | @ WAS | Sun, Oct 11 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 3rd · soft |
| W6 | vs NO | Sun, Oct 18 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 21st |
| W7 | @ HOU | Sun, Oct 25 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 6th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DAL | 8/8 rec, 78 yd, 2 TD | 19.8 | 23.8 | 27.8 |