BUF — Week 8 vs BAL, who allow the 16th-most points to TEs — recently Harold Fannin Jr. put up 0.9 on them (W6), Drew Sample put up 8.4 on them (W7).
Jackson Hawes projects 0.8 PPR points in week 8 vs BAL — the 16th-ranked matchup for TEs. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 8 angle vs BAL: 235.1 passing yards a game allowed (7.25/attempt) · 1.3 TDs/gm through the air · 0.4 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 16th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how BAL defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 8): 7% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 3 games): 39.3% offensive snaps · 0.3 targets/game, 1.3% target share · 4.5% air-yard share (aDOT 36) · 0 catches for 0 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (13 games): 43.9% offensive snaps, 1.5 targets/game, 5.7% target share, 4.9% air-yard share (aDOT 7.3), 1.2 catches for 14.4 yards/game, 3 TD. (2025) TD luck: 3 scored vs 1.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Jackson Hawes in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | vs BAL | Sun, Nov 1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 16th |
| W9 | @ MIN | Mon, Nov 9 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 32nd · tough |
| W10 | @ NYJ | Sun, Nov 15 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 27th · tough |
| W11 | vs MIA | Sun, Nov 22 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 3rd · soft |
| W12 | vs KC | Thu, Nov 26 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 5th · soft |
| W13 | @ NE | Sun, Dec 6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 22nd |