BUF — Week 1 at HOU, who allow the 20th-most points to TEs — recently Oronde Gadsden put up 9.2 on them (W17), Tyler Warren put up 2.6 on them (W18).
Jackson Hawes projects 2.2 PPR points in week 1 at HOU — the 20th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 4.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs HOU: 204.1 passing yards a game allowed (6.46/attempt) · 1.2 TDs/gm through the air · 1.1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 20th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how HOU defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 9% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 43.9% offensive snaps · 5.7% target share · 4.9% air-yard share (aDOT 7.3). TD luck: 3 scored vs 1.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Jackson Hawes in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | @ HOU | Sun, Sep 13 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 20th |
| W2 | vs DET | Thu, Sep 17 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 15th |
| W3 | vs LAC | Sun, Sep 27 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 26th · tough |
| W4 | vs NE | Sun, Oct 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 13th |
| W5 | @ LAR | Mon, Oct 12 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 16th |
| W6 | @ LV | Sun, Oct 18 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 30th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W16 | CLE | 2/2 rec, 26 yd | 2.6 | 3.6 | 4.6 |
| W15 | NE | 1/1 rec, 9 yd | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| W14 | CIN | 1/1 rec, 3 yd, 1 TD | 6.3 | 6.8 | 7.3 |
| W13 | PIT | 1/1 rec, 10 yd | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| W12 | HOU | 2/2 rec, 26 yd | 2.6 | 3.6 | 4.6 |
| W10 | MIA | 1/2 rec, 26 yd, 1 TD | 8.6 | 9.1 | 9.6 |
| W9 | KC | 1/2 rec, 18 yd | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| W8 | CAR | 2/3 rec, 15 yd | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| W4 | NO | 1/1 rec, 15 yd | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| W3 | MIA | 1/1 rec, 5 yd, 1 TD | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.5 |
| W2 | NYJ | 1/1 rec, 5 yd | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| W1 | BAL | 1/1 rec, 29 yd | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.9 |