DET — Week 1 vs NO, who allow the 18th-most points to RBs — recently Tony Pollard put up 9.5 on them (W17), Bijan Robinson put up 4.3 on them (W18).
Jacob Saylors projects 3.6 PPR points in week 1 vs NO — the 18th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 1.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs NO: 120.6 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.98 a carry · 0.7 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 18th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how NO defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 25% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 0.8% offensive snaps · 0.2 carries/game. TD luck: 0 scored vs 0 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 1 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.4 · median 2.3 · ceiling 8.3 — 6% chance of 10+, 1% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jacob Saylors in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | vs NO | Sun, Sep 13 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 18th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W4 | CLE | 2 car, 11 yd | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |