DET — Week 9 at MIA, who allow the 10th-most points to RBs — recently Braelon Allen put up 13.4 on them (W7), Rhamondre Stevenson put up 9 on them (W8).
24.8 PPR points against MIN on 23 car, 153 yd, 1 TD · 2/4 rec, 15 yd — right on his 23.4 projection (+1.4). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jahmyr Gibbs projects 25.8 PPR points in week 9 at MIA — the 10th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 26.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs MIA: 113.1 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.81 a carry · 0.7 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 10th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIA defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 101.5 rushing yards · 29.5 receiving yards · 67% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 78.4% offensive snaps · 22.4 carries/game (77.7% of team carries) · 85.9% of the backfield's touches · 6.3 targets/game, 18.5% target share · 110.4 rushing and 40.7 receiving yards/game, 10 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 67% offensive snaps, 14.3 carries/game (55% of team carries), 63.6% of the backfield's touches, 5.5 targets/game, 16.2% target share, 71.9 rushing and 36.2 receiving yards/game, 18 TD. (2026) TD luck: 10 scored vs 10.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 8.1 · median 21.2 · ceiling 39.9 — 82% chance of 10+, 72% of 15+, 53% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jahmyr Gibbs in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ MIA | Sun, Nov 8 | 20.5 | 23.1 | 25.8 | 10th |
| W10 | vs NE | Sun, Nov 15 | 20.5 | 23.0 | 25.6 | 25th · tough |
| W11 | vs TB | Sun, Nov 22 | 19.6 | 22.2 | 24.7 | 31st · tough |
| W12 | vs CHI | Thu, Nov 26 | 22.8 | 25.3 | 27.8 | 30th · tough |
| W13 | @ ATL | Sun, Dec 6 | 19.7 | 22.2 | 24.7 | 7th · soft |
| W14 | vs TEN | Sun, Dec 13 | 21.1 | 23.7 | 26.4 | 17th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | MIN | 23 car, 153 yd, 1 TD · 2/4 rec, 15 yd | 22.8 | 23.8 | 24.8 |
| W7 | GB | 29 car, 116 yd · 5/6 rec, 27 yd · 1 fum | 12.3 | 14.8 | 17.3 |
| W5 | ARI | 25 car, 151 yd, 2 TD · 5/6 rec, 56 yd | 32.7 | 35.2 | 37.7 |
| W4 | CAR | 15 car, 46 yd, 1 TD · 4/7 rec, 31 yd | 13.7 | 15.7 | 17.7 |
| W3 | NYJ | 20 car, 99 yd, 2 TD · 7/8 rec, 65 yd, 1 TD | 34.4 | 37.9 | 41.4 |
| W2 | BUF | 16 car, 52 yd · 6/8 rec, 61 yd, 1 TD | 17.3 | 20.3 | 23.3 |
| W1 | NO | 29 car, 156 yd, 2 TD · 5/5 rec, 30 yd · 1 fum | 28.6 | 31.1 | 33.6 |