DET — Week 2 at BUF, who allow the 6th-most points to RBs — recently David Montgomery put up 25.9 on them (W1).
33.6 PPR points against NO on 29 car, 156 yd, 2 TD · 5/5 rec, 30 yd · 1 fum — beat his 23.7 projection by 9.9. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jahmyr Gibbs projects 26.1 PPR points in week 2 at BUF — the 6th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 33.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs BUF: 124 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.88 a carry · 2 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 6th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how BUF defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 78.5% offensive snaps · 22.5 carries/game (84.9% of team carries) · 92.1% of the backfield's touches · 6.5 targets/game, 16.9% target share · 104 rushing and 45.5 receiving yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 67% offensive snaps, 14.3 carries/game (55% of team carries), 63.6% of the backfield's touches, 5.5 targets/game, 16.2% target share, 71.9 rushing and 36.2 receiving yards/game, 18 TD. (2025) TD luck: 18 scored vs 10.7 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 7 · median 21.8 · ceiling 42.9 — 83% chance of 10+, 71% of 15+, 57% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jahmyr Gibbs in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ BUF | Thu, Sep 17 | 22.3 | 24.2 | 26.1 | 6th · soft |
| W3 | vs NYJ | Sun, Sep 27 | 21.2 | 23.3 | 25.3 | 32nd · tough |
| W4 | @ CAR | Sun, Oct 4 | 20.5 | 22.5 | 24.5 | 1st · soft |
| W5 | @ ARI | Sun, Oct 11 | 20.6 | 22.7 | 24.7 | 25th · tough |
| W7 | vs GB | Sun, Oct 25 | 18.8 | 20.9 | 23.0 | 11th |
| W8 | vs MIN | Sun, Nov 1 | 17.9 | 19.8 | 21.8 | 30th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | NO | 29 car, 156 yd, 2 TD · 5/5 rec, 30 yd · 1 fum | 28.6 | 31.1 | 33.6 |