DAL — Week 2 vs WAS, who allow the 3rd-most points to TEs — recently Dallas Goedert put up 19.7 on them (W1).
2.6 PPR points against NYG on 2/2 rec, 6 yd — missed his 9.7 projection by 7.1. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jake Ferguson projects 9.6 PPR points in week 2 vs WAS — the 3rd-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 2.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs WAS: 203 passing yards a game allowed (8.12/attempt) · 3 TDs/gm through the air · 0 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 3rd-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how WAS defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 76% offensive snaps · 3 targets/game, 9.8% target share · 6.9% air-yard share (aDOT 5.8) · 3 catches for 24.5 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 66.7% offensive snaps, 6 targets/game, 16.5% target share, 8.9% air-yard share (aDOT 4.7), 4.8 catches for 35.3 yards/game, 8 TD. (2025) TD luck: 8 scored vs 9.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.5 · median 6.3 · ceiling 14.7 — 27% chance of 10+, 10% of 15+, 4% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jake Ferguson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs WAS | Sun, Sep 20 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 3rd · soft |
| W3 | vs BAL | Sun, Sep 27 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 17th |
| W4 | @ HOU | Sun, Oct 4 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 6th · soft |
| W5 | vs TB | Thu, Oct 8 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 4th · soft |
| W6 | @ GB | Sun, Oct 18 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 8th · soft |
| W7 | @ PHI | Mon, Oct 26 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 27th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | NYG | 2/2 rec, 6 yd | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.6 |