DAL · Questionable — Ankle — Week 9 at IND, who allow the 5th-most points to TEs — recently T.J. Hockenson put up 9.5 on them (W7), Nate Boerkircher put up 9.1 on them (W8).
Jake Ferguson projects 8.3 PPR points in week 9 at IND — the 5th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 4.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs IND: 226.3 passing yards a game allowed (7.87/attempt) · 1.8 TDs/gm through the air · 0.3 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 5th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how IND defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 23% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 59.2% offensive snaps · 3.6 targets/game, 9.3% target share · 6% air-yard share (aDOT 5) · 2.4 catches for 16.4 yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 66.7% offensive snaps, 6 targets/game, 16.5% target share, 8.9% air-yard share (aDOT 4.7), 4.8 catches for 35.3 yards/game, 8 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 2.3 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.8 · median 5.5 · ceiling 13.2 — 23% chance of 10+, 7% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jake Ferguson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
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| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ IND | Sun, Nov 8 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5th · soft |
| W10 | vs SF | Sun, Nov 15 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 25th · tough |
| W11 | vs TEN | Sun, Nov 22 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 20th |
| W12 | vs PHI | Thu, Nov 26 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 29th · tough |
| W13 | @ SEA | Mon, Dec 7 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 30th · tough |
| W15 | @ LAR | Sun, Dec 20 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 27th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W6 | GB | 2/3 rec, 13 yd | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 |
| W5 | TB | 3/6 rec, 19 yd | 1.9 | 3.4 | 4.9 |
| W4 | HOU | 3/4 rec, 11 yd | 1.1 | 2.6 | 4.1 |
| W3 | BAL | 3/5 rec, 23 yd, 1 TD · 1 fum | 6.3 | 7.8 | 9.3 |
| W2 | WAS | 4/4 rec, 43 yd, 2 TD | 16.3 | 18.3 | 20.3 |
| W1 | NYG | 2/2 rec, 6 yd | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.6 |