SF — Week 1 at LAR, who allow the 16th-most points to TEs — recently Kyle Pitts put up 1.6 on them (W17), Josiah Deguara put up 7.5 on them (W18).
Jake Tonges projects 2.2 PPR points in week 1 at LAR — the 16th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 9.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs LAR: 232.9 passing yards a game allowed (6.73/attempt) · 1.5 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 16th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how LAR defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 19% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 33.2% offensive snaps · 12.2% target share · 7.9% air-yard share (aDOT 5.1). TD luck: 5 scored vs 2.8 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Jake Tonges in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | @ LAR | Thu, Sep 10 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 16th |
| W2 | vs MIA | Sun, Sep 20 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 6th · soft |
| W3 | vs ARI | Sun, Sep 27 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 3rd · soft |
| W4 | vs DEN | Sun, Oct 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 17th |
| W5 | @ SEA | Sun, Oct 11 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 12th |
| W6 | vs WAS | Mon, Oct 19 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2nd · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W17 | CHI | 7/9 rec, 60 yd, 1 TD | 12.0 | 15.5 | 19.0 |
| W16 | IND | 1/2 rec, 7 yd | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| W8 | HOU | 1/1 rec, 2 yd, 1 TD | 6.2 | 6.7 | 7.2 |
| W6 | TB | 6/7 rec, 58 yd | 5.8 | 8.8 | 11.8 |
| W5 | LAR | 7/11 rec, 41 yd, 1 TD | 10.1 | 13.6 | 17.1 |
| W4 | JAX | 3/5 rec, 58 yd, 1 TD | 11.8 | 13.3 | 14.8 |
| W3 | ARI | 2/3 rec, 21 yd | 2.1 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| W2 | NO | 4/5 rec, 31 yd | 3.1 | 5.1 | 7.1 |
| W1 | SEA | 3/3 rec, 15 yd, 1 TD | 7.5 | 9.0 | 10.5 |