CIN — Week 2 at HOU, who allow the 5th-most points to WRs — recently DJ Moore put up 16 on them (W1).
3.2 PPR points against TB on 2/4 rec, 12 yd — missed his 19.7 projection by 16.5. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Ja'Marr Chase projects 17.2 PPR points in week 2 at HOU — the 5th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 3.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs HOU: 334 passing yards a game allowed (11.52/attempt) · 2 TDs/gm through the air · 0 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 5th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how HOU defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 94% offensive snaps · 6.5 targets/game, 20.4% target share · 30.9% air-yard share (aDOT 8.8) · 4.5 catches for 43.5 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 94.4% offensive snaps, 11.6 targets/game, 32.1% target share, 36.6% air-yard share (aDOT 8.5), 7.8 catches for 88.3 yards/game, 8 TD. (2025) TD luck: 8 scored vs 6.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 5.2 · median 13.8 · ceiling 24.5 — 66% chance of 10+, 40% of 15+, 19% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Ja'Marr Chase in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ HOU | Sun, Sep 20 | 11.2 | 14.2 | 17.2 | 5th · soft |
| W3 | @ PIT | Sun, Sep 27 | 11.8 | 15.0 | 18.2 | 32nd · tough |
| W4 | vs JAX | Sun, Oct 4 | 11.2 | 14.2 | 17.3 | 14th |
| W5 | @ MIA | Sun, Oct 11 | 13.3 | 16.6 | 20.0 | 22nd |
| W7 | @ BAL | Sun, Oct 25 | 11.8 | 15.1 | 18.4 | 24th |
| W8 | vs TEN | Sun, Nov 1 | 13.8 | 17.1 | 20.5 | 17th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | TB | 2/4 rec, 12 yd | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 |