CIN — Week 9 at ATL, who allow the 16th-most points to WRs — recently Luther Burden III put up 9.5 on them (W6), Jordan Watkins put up 5.6 on them (W7).
31.1 PPR points against TEN on 11/16 rec, 141 yd, 1 TD — beat his 19.8 projection by 11.3. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Ja'Marr Chase projects 19.7 PPR points in week 9 at ATL — the 16th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 22.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs ATL: 237.5 passing yards a game allowed (6.6/attempt) · 1.4 TDs/gm through the air · 0.4 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 16th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how ATL defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 79.5 receiving yards · 50% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 82% offensive snaps · 8.7 targets/game, 24.3% target share · 33.4% air-yard share (aDOT 10.4) · 6.1 catches for 70.3 yards/game, 6 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 94.4% offensive snaps, 11.6 targets/game, 32.1% target share, 36.6% air-yard share (aDOT 8.5), 7.8 catches for 88.3 yards/game, 8 TD. (2026) TD luck: 6 scored vs 4.4 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 6.8 · median 16.1 · ceiling 27.2 — 77% chance of 10+, 54% of 15+, 31% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Ja'Marr Chase in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ ATL | Sun, Nov 8 | 13.4 | 16.6 | 19.7 | 16th |
| W10 | vs PIT | Sun, Nov 15 | 12.6 | 15.6 | 18.6 | 28th · tough |
| W11 | @ WAS | Mon, Nov 23 | 13.7 | 16.9 | 20.1 | 14th |
| W12 | vs NO | Sun, Nov 29 | 12.0 | 15.2 | 18.3 | 19th |
| W13 | @ CLE | Sun, Dec 6 | 11.6 | 14.6 | 17.6 | 20th |
| W14 | vs KC | Sun, Dec 13 | 11.3 | 14.3 | 17.3 | 31st · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | TEN | 11/16 rec, 141 yd, 1 TD | 20.1 | 25.6 | 31.1 |
| W7 | BAL | 5/7 rec, 62 yd, 1 TD | 12.2 | 14.7 | 17.2 |
| W5 | MIA | 6/10 rec, 77 yd, 1 TD | 13.7 | 16.7 | 19.7 |
| W4 | JAX | 3/3 rec, 27 yd | 2.7 | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| W3 | PIT | 9/12 rec, 98 yd, 1 TD | 15.8 | 20.3 | 24.8 |
| W2 | HOU | 7/9 rec, 75 yd, 2 TD | 19.5 | 23.0 | 26.5 |
| W1 | TB | 2/4 rec, 12 yd | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 |