BUF — Week 9 at MIN, who allow the 22nd-most points to RBs — recently Jonathan Taylor put up 17 on them (W7), Jahmyr Gibbs put up 22.8 on them (W8).
18.1 PPR points against BAL on 21 car, 80 yd, 1 TD · 2/3 rec, 21 yd — right on his 17.8 projection (+0.3). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
James Cook III projects 15.0 PPR points in week 9 at MIN — the 22nd-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 21.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs MIN: 116.7 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.54 a carry · 0.6 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 22nd-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIN defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 80.5 rushing yards · 13.5 receiving yards · 52% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 64.9% offensive snaps · 19.7 carries/game (63.6% of team carries) · 81.2% of the backfield's touches · 2.4 targets/game, 8.6% target share · 101 rushing and 15.7 receiving yards/game, 7 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 57.2% offensive snaps, 18.2 carries/game (56.5% of team carries), 68.8% of the backfield's touches, 2.4 targets/game, 8.2% target share, 95.4 rushing and 17.1 receiving yards/game, 14 TD. (2026) TD luck: 7 scored vs 5.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 7.2 · median 13.8 · ceiling 20.5 — 72% chance of 10+, 44% of 15+, 14% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare James Cook III in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ MIN | Mon, Nov 9 | 13.4 | 14.2 | 15.0 | 22nd |
| W10 | @ NYJ | Sun, Nov 15 | 14.9 | 15.7 | 16.5 | 12th |
| W11 | vs MIA | Sun, Nov 22 | 16.0 | 16.9 | 17.7 | 10th |
| W12 | vs KC | Thu, Nov 26 | 14.5 | 15.3 | 16.0 | 24th |
| W13 | @ NE | Sun, Dec 6 | 15.2 | 16.1 | 16.9 | 25th · tough |
| W14 | @ GB | Sun, Dec 13 | 15.5 | 16.3 | 17.2 | 8th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | BAL | 21 car, 80 yd, 1 TD · 2/3 rec, 21 yd | 16.1 | 17.1 | 18.1 |
| W6 | LV | 22 car, 95 yd, 1 TD · 3/3 rec, 58 yd | 21.3 | 22.8 | 24.3 |
| W5 | LAR | 25 car, 111 yd, 2 TD · 1/1 rec, 7 yd · 1 fum | 21.8 | 22.3 | 22.8 |
| W4 | NE | 12 car, 75 yd, 1 TD · 2/2 rec, 8 yd | 14.3 | 15.3 | 16.3 |
| W3 | LAC | 24 car, 154 yd, 1 TD · 0/1 rec, 0 yd · 1 fum | 19.4 | 19.4 | 19.4 |
| W2 | DET | 21 car, 135 yd, 1 TD · 1/3 rec, 4 yd | 19.9 | 20.4 | 20.9 |
| W1 | HOU | 13 car, 57 yd · 3/4 rec, 12 yd | 6.9 | 8.4 | 9.9 |