DET — Week 2 at BUF, who allow the 8th-most points to WRs — recently Nico Collins put up 14.2 on them (W1).
8.5 PPR points against NO on 4/9 rec, 45 yd — missed his 13.9 projection by 5.4. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jameson Williams projects 12.6 PPR points in week 2 at BUF — the 8th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 8.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs BUF: 274 passing yards a game allowed (7.21/attempt) · 2 TDs/gm through the air · 0 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 8th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how BUF defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 90.5% offensive snaps · 6.5 targets/game, 16.8% target share · 38.1% air-yard share (aDOT 13.6) · 3 catches for 39 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 90.2% offensive snaps, 6 targets/game, 18.6% target share, 31.9% air-yard share (aDOT 12.6), 3.8 catches for 65.7 yards/game, 7 TD. (2025) TD luck: 7 scored vs 4.5 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.5 · median 9.3 · ceiling 19.7 — 46% chance of 10+, 24% of 15+, 10% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jameson Williams in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ BUF | Thu, Sep 17 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 8th · soft |
| W3 | vs NYJ | Sun, Sep 27 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 14.4 | 23rd |
| W4 | @ CAR | Sun, Oct 4 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 13.5 | 10th |
| W5 | @ ARI | Sun, Oct 11 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 13.7 | 16th |
| W7 | vs GB | Sun, Oct 25 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 13.9 | 12th |
| W8 | vs MIN | Sun, Nov 1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 1st · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | NO | 4/9 rec, 45 yd | 4.5 | 6.5 | 8.5 |