DAL — Week 9 at IND, who allow the 5th-most points to RBs — recently Jordan Mason put up 6.8 on them (W7), Bhayshul Tuten put up 27.9 on them (W8).
6.7 PPR points against ARI on 24 car, 56 yd · 1/2 rec, 1 yd — missed his 19.8 projection by 13.1. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Javonte Williams projects 18.4 PPR points in week 9 at IND — the 5th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 13.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs IND: 130.8 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.89 a carry · 1 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 5th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how IND defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 71.5 rushing yards · 7.5 receiving yards · 60% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 74.8% offensive snaps · 16.8 carries/game (67.3% of team carries) · 76.7% of the backfield's touches · 3 targets/game, 8.3% target share · 66 rushing and 13 receiving yards/game, 9 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 69% offensive snaps, 15.8 carries/game (57.9% of team carries), 69% of the backfield's touches, 3.2 targets/game, 8.6% target share, 75.1 rushing and 8.6 receiving yards/game, 13 TD. (2026) TD luck: 9 scored vs 9.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 7.9 · median 16.7 · ceiling 25.6 — 81% chance of 10+, 59% of 15+, 35% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Javonte Williams in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ IND | Sun, Nov 8 | 15.9 | 17.2 | 18.4 | 5th · soft |
| W10 | vs SF | Sun, Nov 15 | 14.5 | 15.6 | 16.8 | 20th |
| W11 | vs TEN | Sun, Nov 22 | 15.8 | 17.0 | 18.3 | 17th |
| W12 | vs PHI | Thu, Nov 26 | 14.4 | 15.5 | 16.7 | 13th |
| W13 | @ SEA | Mon, Dec 7 | 13.8 | 15.0 | 16.1 | 18th |
| W15 | @ LAR | Sun, Dec 20 | 14.4 | 15.5 | 16.6 | 28th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | ARI | 24 car, 56 yd · 1/2 rec, 1 yd | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.7 |
| W7 | PHI | 25 car, 155 yd, 1 TD | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| W6 | GB | 11 car, 41 yd, 1 TD · 2/2 rec, 9 yd | 11.0 | 12.0 | 13.0 |
| W5 | TB | 12 car, 45 yd, 1 TD · 2/3 rec, 17 yd | 12.2 | 13.2 | 14.2 |
| W4 | HOU | 19 car, 62 yd, 3 TD · 5/5 rec, 21 yd | 26.3 | 28.8 | 31.3 |
| W3 | BAL | 19 car, 98 yd, 1 TD · 2/3 rec, 5 yd | 16.3 | 17.3 | 18.3 |
| W2 | WAS | 12 car, 30 yd · 3/4 rec, 20 yd | 5.0 | 6.5 | 8.0 |
| W1 | NYG | 12 car, 41 yd, 1 TD · 5/5 rec, 31 yd, 1 TD | 19.2 | 21.7 | 24.2 |