SEA — Week 9 vs ARI, who allow the 6th-most points to WRs — recently Marvin Mims Jr. put up 5.6 on them (W7), Ryan Flournoy put up 10.1 on them (W8).
23.8 PPR points against CHI on 6/11 rec, 118 yd, 1 TD — right on his 25.2 projection (-1.4). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 24.1 PPR points in week 9 vs ARI — the 6th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 26.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs ARI: 237.6 passing yards a game allowed (8.27/attempt) · 2.3 TDs/gm through the air · 0.4 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 6th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how ARI defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 85.2% offensive snaps · 11.1 targets/game, 36.3% target share · 53.9% air-yard share (aDOT 10.5) · 8 catches for 123.1 yards/game, 9 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 77.4% offensive snaps, 9.6 targets/game, 36.8% target share, 50.3% air-yard share (aDOT 11.2), 7 catches for 105.5 yards/game, 10 TD. (2026) TD luck: 9 scored vs 4.6 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 11.2 · median 20.4 · ceiling 32.2 — 92% chance of 10+, 72% of 15+, 50% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs ARI | Sun, Nov 8 | 17.3 | 20.7 | 24.1 | 6th · soft |
| W10 | @ LV | Sun, Nov 15 | 17.7 | 21.4 | 25.2 | 8th · soft |
| W12 | @ SF | Sun, Nov 29 | 17.2 | 21.0 | 24.8 | 22nd |
| W13 | vs DAL | Mon, Dec 7 | 19.1 | 23.1 | 27.0 | 5th · soft |
| W14 | vs NYG | Sun, Dec 13 | 18.0 | 21.7 | 25.4 | 17th |
| W15 | @ PHI | Sat, Dec 19 | 17.5 | 21.0 | 24.6 | 1st · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | CHI | 6/11 rec, 118 yd, 1 TD | 17.8 | 20.8 | 23.8 |
| W7 | KC | 2 car, 13 yd · 9/12 rec, 150 yd, 1 TD | 22.3 | 26.8 | 31.3 |
| W6 | DEN | 12/16 rec, 134 yd | 13.4 | 19.4 | 25.4 |
| W5 | SF | 1 car, 16 yd · 5/8 rec, 102 yd, 1 TD | 17.8 | 20.3 | 22.8 |
| W4 | LAC | 5/6 rec, 76 yd | 7.6 | 10.1 | 12.6 |
| W3 | WAS | 1/1, 14 pass yd · 10/14 rec, 128 yd, 2 TD | 25.4 | 30.4 | 35.4 |
| W2 | ARI | 9/11 rec, 155 yd, 3 TD | 33.5 | 38.0 | 42.5 |
| W1 | NE | 8/11 rec, 122 yd, 1 TD | 18.2 | 22.2 | 26.2 |