DEN — Week 2 vs JAX, who allow the 14th-most points to WRs — recently Denzel Boston put up 11.9 on them (W1).
1.2 PPR points against KC on 1/3 rec, 2 yd — missed his 14.8 projection by 13.6. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jaylen Waddle projects 12.7 PPR points in week 2 vs JAX — the 14th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 1.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs JAX: 205 passing yards a game allowed (9.32/attempt) · 1 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 14th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how JAX defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 75% offensive snaps · 6.5 targets/game, 22.8% target share · 35.6% air-yard share (aDOT 12.8) · 4.5 catches for 70 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 77.6% offensive snaps, 6.3 targets/game, 23.3% target share, 42.7% air-yard share (aDOT 13.1), 4 catches for 56.9 yards/game, 6 TD. (2025) TD luck: 6 scored vs 4.4 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.9 · median 9 · ceiling 19.7 — 45% chance of 10+, 24% of 15+, 10% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jaylen Waddle in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs JAX | Sun, Sep 20 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 14th |
| W3 | vs LAR | Sun, Sep 27 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 14.3 | 4th · soft |
| W4 | @ SF | Sun, Oct 4 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 14.7 | 28th · tough |
| W5 | @ LAC | Sun, Oct 11 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 19th |
| W6 | vs SEA | Thu, Oct 15 | 8.1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 30th · tough |
| W7 | @ ARI | Sun, Oct 25 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 14.4 | 16th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | KC | 1/3 rec, 2 yd | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.2 |