DEN — Week 9 at CAR, who allow the 25th-most points to WRs — recently Tez Johnson put up 10.7 on them (W7), Matthew Golden put up 13.9 on them (W8).
14.9 PPR points against KC on 3/6 rec, 39 yd, 1 TD — beat his 11.6 projection by 3.3. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jaylen Waddle projects 11.5 PPR points in week 9 at CAR — the 25th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 10 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CAR: 219.6 passing yards a game allowed (6.4/attempt) · 1.4 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 25th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how CAR defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 49.5 receiving yards · 29% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 63.5% offensive snaps · 6.4 targets/game, 23.1% target share · 36.8% air-yard share (aDOT 9.8) · 3.6 catches for 39.4 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 77.6% offensive snaps, 6.3 targets/game, 23.3% target share, 42.7% air-yard share (aDOT 13.1), 4 catches for 56.9 yards/game, 6 TD. (2026) TD luck: 2 scored vs 1.9 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.4 · median 7.9 · ceiling 16.9 — 39% chance of 10+, 17% of 15+, 4% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jaylen Waddle in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ CAR | Sun, Nov 8 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 25th · tough |
| W11 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 22 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 8th · soft |
| W12 | @ PIT | Fri, Nov 27 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 28th · tough |
| W13 | vs MIA | Sun, Dec 6 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 14.4 | 29th · tough |
| W14 | @ NYJ | Sun, Dec 13 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 21st |
| W15 | @ LV | Sun, Dec 20 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | KC | 3/6 rec, 39 yd, 1 TD | 11.9 | 13.4 | 14.9 |
| W7 | ARI | 4/7 rec, 48 yd | 4.8 | 6.8 | 8.8 |
| W6 | SEA | 4/7 rec, 24 yd | 2.4 | 4.4 | 6.4 |
| W5 | LAC | 1 car, 9 yd · 2/5 rec, 19 yd | 2.8 | 3.8 | 4.8 |
| W4 | SF | 5/6 rec, 35 yd, 1 TD | 9.5 | 12.0 | 14.5 |
| W3 | LAR | 1 car, 14 yd · 2/7 rec, 10 yd | 4.4 | 5.4 | 6.4 |
| W2 | JAX | 8/10 rec, 138 yd | 13.8 | 17.8 | 21.8 |
| W1 | KC | 1/3 rec, 2 yd | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.2 |