PIT — Week 2 at NE, who allow the 23rd-most points to RBs — recently Jadarian Price put up 5.8 on them (W1).
10.3 PPR points against ATL on 10 car, 46 yd · 5/6 rec, 27 yd · 1 fum — missed his 13.3 projection by 3. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jaylen Warren projects 11.6 PPR points in week 2 at NE — the 23rd-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 10.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs NE: 97 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.41 a carry · 0 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 23rd-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how NE defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 37% offensive snaps · 10.5 carries/game (47.7% of team carries) · 56.4% of the backfield's touches · 5 targets/game, 13.5% target share · 44.5 rushing and 30.5 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 50.8% offensive snaps, 13.2 carries/game (55.8% of team carries), 54.4% of the backfield's touches, 2.8 targets/game, 9.6% target share, 59.9 rushing and 20.8 receiving yards/game, 8 TD. (2025) TD luck: 8 scored vs 9.9 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 4.5 · median 8.8 · ceiling 17.9 — 42% chance of 10+, 20% of 15+, 8% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jaylen Warren in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ NE | Sun, Sep 20 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 23rd |
| W3 | vs CIN | Sun, Sep 27 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 13.7 | 20th |
| W4 | @ CLE | Thu, Oct 1 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 21st |
| W5 | vs IND | Sun, Oct 11 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 3rd · soft |
| W6 | @ TB | Sun, Oct 18 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 15th |
| W7 | @ NO | Sun, Oct 25 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 5th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | ATL | 10 car, 46 yd · 5/6 rec, 27 yd · 1 fum | 5.3 | 7.8 | 10.3 |