DEN · Questionable — Hamstring — Week 2 vs JAX, who allow the 27th-most points to RBs — recently Quinshon Judkins put up 5 on them (W1).
3.6 PPR points against KC on 8 car, 36 yd — missed his 11.0 projection by 7.4. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
J.K. Dobbins projects 12.9 PPR points in week 2 vs JAX — the 27th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 3.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs JAX: 87 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.95 a carry · 0 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 27th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how JAX defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 43% offensive snaps · 9 carries/game (41.9% of team carries) · 41.9% of the backfield's touches · 36 rushing and 0 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (10 games): 51.1% offensive snaps, 15.3 carries/game (56.7% of team carries), 60.7% of the backfield's touches, 1.4 targets/game, 4.6% target share, 77.2 rushing and 3.7 receiving yards/game, 4 TD. (2025) TD luck: 4 scored vs 3.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 5.6 · median 10.7 · ceiling 20.6 — 54% chance of 10+, 22% of 15+, 11% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare J.K. Dobbins in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs JAX | Sun, Sep 20 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 27th · tough |
| W3 | vs LAR | Sun, Sep 27 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 19th |
| W4 | @ SF | Sun, Oct 4 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 13th |
| W5 | @ LAC | Sun, Oct 11 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 16th |
| W6 | vs SEA | Thu, Oct 15 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 22nd |
| W7 | @ ARI | Sun, Oct 25 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 25th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | KC | 8 car, 36 yd | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 |