DEN — Week 9 at CAR, who allow the 2nd-most points to RBs — recently Bucky Irving put up 23 on them (W7), Josh Jacobs put up 17.2 on them (W8).
1.3 PPR points against KC on 7 car, 13 yd — missed his 8.8 projection by 7.5. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
J.K. Dobbins projects 10.1 PPR points in week 9 at CAR — the 2nd-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 7.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CAR: 140.7 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.83 a carry · 1.7 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 2nd-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CAR defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 27.5 rushing yards · 2.5 receiving yards · 25% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 38.3% offensive snaps · 11.8 carries/game (48% of team carries) · 48.8% of the backfield's touches · 1.1 targets/game, 4.2% target share · 38.3 rushing and 3.4 receiving yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (10 games): 51.1% offensive snaps, 15.3 carries/game (56.7% of team carries), 60.7% of the backfield's touches, 1.4 targets/game, 4.6% target share, 77.2 rushing and 3.7 receiving yards/game, 4 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 4.4 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.7 · median 8 · ceiling 16.2 — 35% chance of 10+, 13% of 15+, 6% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare J.K. Dobbins in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ CAR | Sun, Nov 8 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 2nd · soft |
| W11 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 22 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 4th · soft |
| W12 | @ PIT | Fri, Nov 27 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 27th · tough |
| W13 | vs MIA | Sun, Dec 6 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 10th |
| W14 | @ NYJ | Sun, Dec 13 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 12th |
| W15 | @ LV | Sun, Dec 20 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | KC | 7 car, 13 yd | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| W7 | ARI | 6 car, 23 yd, 1 TD | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| W6 | SEA | 17 car, 41 yd, 1 TD · 3/3 rec, 5 yd | 10.6 | 12.1 | 13.6 |
| W5 | LAC | 18 car, 68 yd, 1 TD · 2/2 rec, 6 yd | 13.4 | 14.4 | 15.4 |
| W4 | SF | 11 car, 40 yd · 2/2 rec, 12 yd | 5.2 | 6.2 | 7.2 |
| W3 | LAR | 17 car, 49 yd · 1/2 rec, 4 yd | 5.3 | 5.8 | 6.3 |
| W2 | JAX | 10 car, 36 yd | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| W1 | KC | 8 car, 36 yd | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 |