CAR — Week 9 vs DEN, who allow the 27th-most points to WRs — recently Michael Wilson put up 6.6 on them (W7), Rashee Rice put up 11.3 on them (W8).
4.4 PPR points against GB on 3/3 rec, 14 yd — right on his 4.0 projection (+0.4). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
John Metchie III projects 3.2 PPR points in week 9 vs DEN — the 27th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 4.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs DEN: 246.6 passing yards a game allowed (6.47/attempt) · 1.4 TDs/gm through the air · 0.9 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 27th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how DEN defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 18.5 receiving yards · 11% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 6 games): 38.2% offensive snaps · 3.3 targets/game, 9.3% target share · 7.9% air-yard share (aDOT 7.2) · 2 catches for 19 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (13 games): 46.1% offensive snaps, 3.7 targets/game, 13.2% target share, 10.5% air-yard share (aDOT 5.6), 2.5 catches for 21.1 yards/game, 2 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 0.7 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare John Metchie III in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs DEN | Sun, Nov 8 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 27th · tough |
| W10 | @ NO | Sun, Nov 15 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 19th |
| W11 | vs BAL | Sun, Nov 22 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 10th |
| W12 | @ TB | Mon, Nov 30 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 26th · tough |
| W13 | @ MIN | Sun, Dec 6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 30th · tough |
| W14 | vs NO | Sun, Dec 13 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 19th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | GB | 3/3 rec, 14 yd | 1.4 | 2.9 | 4.4 |
| W7 | TB | 2/4 rec, 20 yd | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| W6 | PHI | 2/3 rec, 24 yd | 2.4 | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| W4 | DET | 3/5 rec, 37 yd | 3.7 | 5.2 | 6.7 |
| W3 | CLE | 2/5 rec, 19 yd, 1 TD | 7.9 | 8.9 | 9.9 |