DEN — Week 9 at CAR, who allow the 2nd-most points to RBs — recently Bucky Irving put up 23 on them (W7), Josh Jacobs put up 17.2 on them (W8).
20.4 PPR points against KC on 11 car, 41 yd, 1 TD · 4/5 rec, 63 yd — beat his 11.8 projection by 8.6. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jonah Coleman projects 14.3 PPR points in week 9 at CAR — the 2nd-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 14.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CAR: 140.7 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.83 a carry · 1.7 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 2nd-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CAR defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 52.5 rushing yards · 26.5 receiving yards · 39% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 4 games): 40.3% offensive snaps · 7.5 carries/game (32.6% of team carries) · 44.9% of the backfield's touches · 2.5 targets/game, 8.9% target share · 33.5 rushing and 24.3 receiving yards/game, 2 TD. (2026) TD luck: 2 scored vs 2.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 5.1 · median 11.2 · ceiling 22.9 — 57% chance of 10+, 34% of 15+, 15% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jonah Coleman in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ CAR | Sun, Nov 8 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 14.3 | 2nd · soft |
| W11 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 22 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 13.8 | 4th · soft |
| W12 | @ PIT | Fri, Nov 27 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 11.4 | 27th · tough |
| W13 | vs MIA | Sun, Dec 6 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 10th |
| W14 | @ NYJ | Sun, Dec 13 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 12th |
| W15 | @ LV | Sun, Dec 20 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 4th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | KC | 11 car, 41 yd, 1 TD · 4/5 rec, 63 yd | 16.4 | 18.4 | 20.4 |
| W7 | ARI | 9 car, 54 yd · 2/2 rec, 15 yd | 6.9 | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| W2 | JAX | 10 car, 39 yd, 1 TD · 3/3 rec, 19 yd | 11.8 | 13.3 | 14.8 |