IND — Week 2 at KC, who allow the 26th-most points to RBs — recently RJ Harvey put up 4.1 on them (W1).
25.1 PPR points against BAL on 19 car, 98 yd, 2 TD · 3/4 rec, 23 yd · 1 fum — beat his 19.6 projection by 5.5. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jonathan Taylor projects 18.8 PPR points in week 2 at KC — the 26th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 25.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs KC: 61 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.07 a carry · 0 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 26th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how KC defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 89% offensive snaps · 21.5 carries/game (82.7% of team carries) · 94.4% of the backfield's touches · 4 targets/game, 13.6% target share · 95 rushing and 31.5 receiving yards/game, 4 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 82.6% offensive snaps, 19 carries/game (73.1% of team carries), 84% of the backfield's touches, 3.2 targets/game, 11% target share, 93.2 rushing and 22.2 receiving yards/game, 20 TD. (2025) TD luck: 20 scored vs 15.4 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 7.4 · median 16.5 · ceiling 30.3 — 77% chance of 10+, 55% of 15+, 34% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jonathan Taylor in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ KC | Sun, Sep 20 | 16.0 | 17.4 | 18.8 | 26th · tough |
| W3 | vs HOU | Sun, Sep 27 | 15.6 | 16.9 | 18.3 | 28th · tough |
| W4 | @ WAS | Sun, Oct 4 | 18.3 | 19.8 | 21.2 | 24th |
| W5 | @ PIT | Sun, Oct 11 | 15.3 | 16.7 | 18.1 | 8th · soft |
| W6 | vs TEN | Sun, Oct 18 | 18.9 | 20.4 | 21.8 | 12th |
| W7 | @ MIN | Sun, Oct 25 | 15.3 | 16.6 | 18.0 | 30th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | BAL | 19 car, 98 yd, 2 TD · 3/4 rec, 23 yd · 1 fum | 22.1 | 23.6 | 25.1 |