IND — Week 9 vs DAL, who allow the 3rd-most points to RBs — recently Saquon Barkley put up 13.1 on them (W7), Tyler Allgeier put up 31.1 on them (W8).
6.7 PPR points against JAX on 8 car, 23 yd · 4/5 rec, 24 yd · 1 fum — missed his 16.5 projection by 9.8. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jonathan Taylor projects 17.5 PPR points in week 9 vs DAL — the 3rd-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 15.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs DAL: 152.8 rushing yards a game allowed at 5.03 a carry · 1.3 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 3rd-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how DAL defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 75.5 rushing yards · 15.5 receiving yards · 47% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 77.4% offensive snaps · 18.5 carries/game (65.5% of team carries) · 78.9% of the backfield's touches · 3.9 targets/game, 12.5% target share · 76.3 rushing and 25.3 receiving yards/game, 8 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 82.6% offensive snaps, 19 carries/game (73.1% of team carries), 84% of the backfield's touches, 3.2 targets/game, 11% target share, 93.2 rushing and 22.2 receiving yards/game, 20 TD. (2026) TD luck: 8 scored vs 7.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 5.6 · median 15.9 · ceiling 26.3 — 72% chance of 10+, 55% of 15+, 33% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jonathan Taylor in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs DAL | Sun, Nov 8 | 15.6 | 16.5 | 17.5 | 3rd · soft |
| W10 | vs MIA | Sun, Nov 15 | 16.6 | 17.7 | 18.8 | 10th |
| W11 | @ HOU | Thu, Nov 19 | 14.9 | 15.9 | 17.0 | 14th |
| W12 | vs NYG | Sun, Nov 29 | 17.4 | 18.5 | 19.5 | 19th |
| W14 | @ PHI | Sun, Dec 13 | 14.4 | 15.3 | 16.3 | 13th |
| W15 | @ TEN | Sun, Dec 20 | 15.9 | 16.9 | 18.0 | 17th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | JAX | 8 car, 23 yd · 4/5 rec, 24 yd · 1 fum | 2.7 | 4.7 | 6.7 |
| W7 | MIN | 18 car, 95 yd, 1 TD · 2/3 rec, 15 yd | 17.0 | 18.0 | 19.0 |
| W6 | TEN | 21 car, 94 yd, 1 TD · 2/4 rec, 57 yd · 1 fum | 19.1 | 20.1 | 21.1 |
| W5 | PIT | 15 car, 45 yd · 3/4 rec, 37 yd | 8.2 | 9.7 | 11.2 |
| W4 | WAS | 20 car, 95 yd, 2 TD · 1/4 rec, 2 yd | 21.7 | 22.2 | 22.7 |
| W3 | HOU | 23 car, 68 yd · 2/3 rec, 4 yd | 7.2 | 8.2 | 9.2 |
| W2 | KC | 24 car, 92 yd, 2 TD · 4/4 rec, 40 yd | 25.2 | 27.2 | 29.2 |
| W1 | BAL | 19 car, 98 yd, 2 TD · 3/4 rec, 23 yd · 1 fum | 22.1 | 23.6 | 25.1 |