MIN — Week 9 vs BUF, who allow the 6th-most points to RBs — recently Ashton Jeanty put up 11.8 on them (W6), Derrick Henry put up 12 on them (W8).
2.0 PPR points against DET on 8 car, 20 yd — missed his 11.0 projection by 9. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Jordan Mason projects 7.7 PPR points in week 9 vs BUF — the 6th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 6.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs BUF: 97.4 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.85 a carry · 1 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 6th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how BUF defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 51.5 rushing yards · 0.5 receiving yards · 29% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 3 games): 45.7% offensive snaps · 12.7 carries/game (46.9% of team carries) · 55.6% of the backfield's touches · 0.7 targets/game, 2.8% target share · 49 rushing and 0 receiving yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 42.8% offensive snaps, 9.9 carries/game (41.6% of team carries), 43.9% of the backfield's touches, 1 targets/game, 3.5% target share, 47.4 rushing and 3.2 receiving yards/game, 6 TD. (2025) TD luck: 6 scored vs 5.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.7 · median 5.9 · ceiling 14.2 — 25% chance of 10+, 9% of 15+, 4% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Jordan Mason in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs BUF | Mon, Nov 9 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 6th · soft |
| W10 | @ GB | Sun, Nov 15 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 8th · soft |
| W11 | @ SF | Sun, Nov 22 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 20th |
| W12 | vs ATL | Sun, Nov 29 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 7th · soft |
| W13 | vs CAR | Sun, Dec 6 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 2nd · soft |
| W14 | @ NE | Thu, Dec 10 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 25th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | DET | 8 car, 20 yd | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| W7 | IND | 15 car, 68 yd · 0/2 rec, 0 yd | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| W1 | GB | 15 car, 59 yd, 1 TD | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 |