GB — Week 9 at NE, who allow the 25th-most points to RBs — recently D'Andre Swift put up 15 on them (W7), Ollie Gordon II put up 6.9 on them (W8).
23.2 PPR points against CAR on 21 car, 39 yd, 1 TD · 6/6 rec, 13 yd, 1 TD — beat his 16.0 projection by 7.2. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Josh Jacobs projects 13.9 PPR points in week 9 at NE — the 25th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 21.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs NE: 92.6 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.84 a carry · 0.8 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 25th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how NE defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 49.5 rushing yards · 24.5 receiving yards · 50% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 61.5% offensive snaps · 16 carries/game (71.1% of team carries) · 77.6% of the backfield's touches · 6.5 targets/game, 16% target share · 37.5 rushing and 34 receiving yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 59.1% offensive snaps, 15.6 carries/game (56.4% of team carries), 70.7% of the backfield's touches, 2.9 targets/game, 10.2% target share, 61.9 rushing and 18.8 receiving yards/game, 14 TD. (2025) TD luck: 14 scored vs 12.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 6.1 · median 10.9 · ceiling 20 — 57% chance of 10+, 29% of 15+, 11% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Josh Jacobs in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ NE | Sun, Nov 8 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 13.9 | 25th · tough |
| W10 | vs MIN | Sun, Nov 15 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 14.5 | 22nd |
| W12 | @ LAR | Wed, Nov 25 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 28th · tough |
| W13 | @ NO | Sun, Dec 6 | 13.7 | 15.3 | 16.8 | 1st · soft |
| W14 | vs BUF | Sun, Dec 13 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 14.8 | 6th · soft |
| W15 | vs MIA | Sun, Dec 20 | 12.9 | 14.5 | 16.2 | 10th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | CAR | 21 car, 39 yd, 1 TD · 6/6 rec, 13 yd, 1 TD | 17.2 | 20.2 | 23.2 |
| W7 | DET | 11 car, 36 yd · 5/7 rec, 55 yd, 1 TD | 15.1 | 17.6 | 20.1 |