Josh Oliver TE

MIN — Week 2 at CHI, who allow the 20th-most points to TEs — recently Darren Waller put up 2.8 on them (W1).

Week 1 recap: Josh Oliver

4.2 PPR points against GB on 2/4 rec, 22 yd — right on his 2.5 projection (+1.7). The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.

Should you start Josh Oliver this week?

Josh Oliver projects 4.2 PPR points in week 2 at CHI — the 20th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 4.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.

The week 2 angle vs CHI: 361 passing yards a game allowed (9.5/attempt) · 3 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 20th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how CHI defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.

Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 65% offensive snaps · 2.5 targets/game, 11.3% target share · 5.3% air-yard share (aDOT 3.6) · 1.5 catches for 23 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (12 games): 45.8% offensive snaps, 1.6 targets/game, 6.5% target share, 3.7% air-yard share (aDOT 3.4), 1.3 catches for 13.3 yards/game, 4 TD. (2025) TD luck: 4 scored vs 1.3 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.

Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.3 · median 2.7 · ceiling 8.1 — 6% chance of 10+, 1% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.

Compare Josh Oliver in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer

Common decisions

Upcoming schedule & projections

The matchup

Game log