BUF — Week 1 at HOU, who allow the 27th-most points to WRs — recently Quentin Johnston put up 9.8 on them (W17), Alec Pierce put up 25.2 on them (W18).
Joshua Palmer projects 2.0 PPR points in week 1 at HOU — the 27th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 1.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs HOU: 204.1 passing yards a game allowed (6.46/attempt) · 1.2 TDs/gm through the air · 1.1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 27th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how HOU defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 48.3% offensive snaps · 10.2% target share · 14.2% air-yard share (aDOT 11.5). TD luck: 0 scored vs 1.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Joshua Palmer in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | @ HOU | Sun, Sep 13 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 27th · tough |
| W2 | vs DET | Thu, Sep 17 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3rd · soft |
| W3 | vs LAC | Sun, Sep 27 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 24th |
| W4 | vs NE | Sun, Oct 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 18th |
| W5 | @ LAR | Mon, Oct 12 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 12th |
| W6 | @ LV | Sun, Oct 18 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 11th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W18 | NYJ | 1/3 rec, 1 yd | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| W17 | PHI | 1/2 rec, 12 yd | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| W16 | CLE | 1/1 rec, 2 yd | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| W15 | NE | 1/2 rec, 16 yd | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| W12 | HOU | 2/4 rec, 21 yd | 2.1 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| W11 | TB | 2/5 rec, 17 yd | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| W6 | ATL | 2/2 rec, 60 yd | 6.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 |
| W5 | NE | 2/2 rec, 36 yd | 3.6 | 4.6 | 5.6 |
| W4 | NO | 2/3 rec, 25 yd | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| W3 | MIA | 1/1 rec, 5 yd | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| W2 | NYJ | 2/3 rec, 47 yd | 4.7 | 5.7 | 6.7 |
| W1 | BAL | 5/9 rec, 61 yd | 6.1 | 8.6 | 11.1 |