TEN — Week 1 vs NYJ, who allow the 1st-most points to RBs — recently Rhamondre Stevenson put up 22.2 on them (W17), Ray Davis put up 23.4 on them (W18).
Julius Chestnut projects 0.3 PPR points in week 1 vs NYJ — the 1st-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 0.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs NYJ: 139.3 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.41 a carry · 1.2 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 1st-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how NYJ defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 19% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 3.9% offensive snaps · 0.7 carries/game · 0.4% target share. TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Julius Chestnut in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | vs NYJ | Sun, Sep 13 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1st · soft |
| W2 | vs PHI | Sun, Sep 20 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 10th |
| W3 | @ NYG | Sun, Sep 27 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 5th · soft |
| W4 | @ BAL | Sun, Oct 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 14th |
| W5 | vs HOU | Sun, Oct 11 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 24th |
| W6 | @ IND | Sun, Oct 18 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 22nd |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W16 | KC | 1 car, 1 yd | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| W12 | SEA | 2 car, 3 yd | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| W8 | IND | 2 car, 5 yd | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| W5 | ARI | 1 car, 3 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| W3 | IND | 2 car, 26 yd | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| W1 | DEN | 2 car, 2 yd | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |