BAL — Week 2 vs NO, who allow the 5th-most points to RBs — recently Jahmyr Gibbs put up 28.6 on them (W1).
3.8 PPR points against IND on 6 car, 18 yd · 1/1 rec, 10 yd — right on his 5.2 projection (-1.4). The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Justice Hill projects 6.1 PPR points in week 2 vs NO — the 5th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 3.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs NO: 165 rushing yards a game allowed at 5 a carry · 2 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 5th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how NO defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 46% offensive snaps · 4 carries/game (13.6% of team carries) · 20% of the backfield's touches · 1.5 targets/game, 5.5% target share · 12 rushing and 11 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (10 games): 37.1% offensive snaps, 1.8 carries/game (6.5% of team carries), 17.9% of the backfield's touches, 2.7 targets/game, 10% target share, 9.3 rushing and 16.9 receiving yards/game, 3 TD. (2025) TD luck: 3 scored vs 1 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0 · median 4.1 · ceiling 11.8 — 15% chance of 10+, 6% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Justice Hill in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs NO | Sun, Sep 20 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 5th · soft |
| W3 | @ DAL | Sun, Sep 27 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 9th |
| W4 | vs TEN | Sun, Oct 4 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 12th |
| W5 | @ ATL | Sun, Oct 11 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 29th · tough |
| W6 | @ CLE | Sun, Oct 18 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 21st |
| W7 | vs CIN | Sun, Oct 25 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 20th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | IND | 6 car, 18 yd · 1/1 rec, 10 yd | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.8 |