BAL — Week 9 vs JAX, who allow the 32nd-most points to RBs — recently Jawhar Jordan put up 11 on them (W6), DJ Giddens put up 4.3 on them (W8).
7.5 PPR points against BUF on 3 car, 15 yd · 4/8 rec, 20 yd — right on his 6.1 projection (+1.4). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Justice Hill projects 6.0 PPR points in week 9 vs JAX — the 32nd-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 5.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs JAX: 77.4 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.39 a carry · 0.6 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 32nd-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how JAX defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 14.5 rushing yards · 15.5 receiving yards · 16% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 43.4% offensive snaps · 3 carries/game (10.4% of team carries) · 21.6% of the backfield's touches · 3.1 targets/game, 10.8% target share · 19.4 rushing and 13 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (10 games): 37.1% offensive snaps, 1.8 carries/game (6.5% of team carries), 17.9% of the backfield's touches, 2.7 targets/game, 10% target share, 9.3 rushing and 16.9 receiving yards/game, 3 TD. (2026) TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.7 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.1 · median 3.9 · ceiling 11.5 — 13% chance of 10+, 6% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Justice Hill in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs JAX | Thu, Nov 5 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 32nd · tough |
| W10 | vs LAC | Mon, Nov 16 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 9th |
| W11 | @ CAR | Sun, Nov 22 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 2nd · soft |
| W12 | @ HOU | Sun, Nov 29 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 14th |
| W14 | vs TB | Sun, Dec 13 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 31st · tough |
| W15 | @ PIT | Sun, Dec 20 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 27th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | BUF | 3 car, 15 yd · 4/8 rec, 20 yd | 3.5 | 5.5 | 7.5 |
| W7 | CIN | 3 car, 7 yd · 3/4 rec, 26 yd | 3.3 | 4.8 | 6.3 |
| W6 | CLE | 3/3 rec, 9 yd | 0.9 | 2.4 | 3.9 |
| W5 | ATL | 4 car, 73 yd · 2/4 rec, 5 yd | 7.8 | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| W4 | TEN | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/3 rec, 22 yd | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| W3 | DAL | 5 car, 33 yd | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| W2 | NO | 2 car, 6 yd · 2/2 rec, 12 yd | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 |
| W1 | IND | 6 car, 18 yd · 1/1 rec, 10 yd | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.8 |