LAC — Week 9 vs HOU, who allow the 12th-most points to QBs — recently Trevor Lawrence put up 28.3 on them (W6), J.J. McCarthy put up 10.2 on them (W7).
9.8 PPR points against LAR on 24/32, 257 pass yd, 2 INT · 4 car, 15 yd — missed his 13.8 projection by 4. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Justin Herbert projects 14.0 PPR points in week 9 vs HOU — the 12th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 10.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs HOU: 262.7 passing yards a game allowed (7.48/attempt) · 1.4 passing TDs/gm · 3 sacks and 0.4 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 12th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how HOU defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 208.5 passing yards · 0.69 passing TDs · 24.5 rushing yards · 15% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 100% offensive snaps · 30.3 attempts/game, 61.8% completions, 6.6 yards/attempt, 199.7 passing yards/game, 5 TD to 10 INT · 4.7 carries/game. 2025 baseline (16 games): 96.8% offensive snaps, 32 attempts/game, 66.4% completions, 7.3 yards/attempt, 232.9 passing yards/game, 26 TD to 13 INT, 5.2 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 5 thrown vs 6.7 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 5.9 · median 13.8 · ceiling 21.5 — 73% chance of 10+, 43% of 15+, 18% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Justin Herbert in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs HOU | Sun, Nov 8 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 12th |
| W10 | @ BAL | Mon, Nov 16 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 13th |
| W11 | vs NYJ | Sun, Nov 22 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 16th |
| W12 | vs NE | Sun, Nov 29 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 22nd |
| W13 | @ TB | Sun, Dec 6 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 29th · tough |
| W14 | @ LV | Sun, Dec 13 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 5th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | LAR | 24/32, 257 pass yd, 2 INT · 4 car, 15 yd | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| W6 | KC | 22/37, 204 pass yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 26 yd | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| W5 | DEN | 14/24, 121 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 54 yd · 1 fum | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| W4 | SEA | 19/31, 189 pass yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 6 car, 40 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd · 1 fum | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 |
| W3 | BUF | 20/34, 226 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 17 yd | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 |
| W2 | LV | 15/27, 192 pass yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 2 yd | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| W1 | ARI | 17/27, 209 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 29 yd | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 |