LAC — Week 2 vs LV, who allow the 13th-most points to QBs — recently Malik Willis put up 17.7 on them (W1).
14.3 PPR points against ARI on 17/27, 209 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 29 yd — missed his 18.1 projection by 3.8. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Justin Herbert projects 16.9 PPR points in week 2 vs LV — the 13th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 14.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs LV: 220 passing yards a game allowed (8.15/attempt) · 0 passing TDs/gm · 5 sacks and 1 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 39 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 13th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how LV defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 100% offensive snaps · 27 attempts/game, 59.3% completions, 7.4 yards/attempt, 200.5 passing yards/game, 2 TD to 3 INT · 4 carries/game. 2025 baseline (16 games): 96.8% offensive snaps, 32 attempts/game, 66.4% completions, 7.3 yards/attempt, 232.9 passing yards/game, 26 TD to 13 INT, 5.2 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 26 thrown vs 28.9 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 7.4 · median 16.8 · ceiling 25 — 84% chance of 10+, 63% of 15+, 34% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Justin Herbert in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs LV | Sun, Sep 20 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 13th |
| W3 | @ BUF | Sun, Sep 27 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 15th |
| W4 | @ SEA | Sun, Oct 4 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 24th |
| W5 | vs DEN | Sun, Oct 11 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 9th |
| W6 | @ KC | Sun, Oct 18 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 32nd · tough |
| W8 | @ LAR | Sun, Nov 1 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 10th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | ARI | 17/27, 209 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 29 yd | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 |