MIN — Week 2 at CHI, who allow the 6th-most points to WRs — recently Jalen Coker put up 25.8 on them (W1).
31.2 PPR points against GB on 8/9 rec, 92 yd, 2 TD — beat his 16.8 projection by 14.4. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Justin Jefferson projects 17.8 PPR points in week 2 at CHI — the 6th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 31.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs CHI: 361 passing yards a game allowed (9.5/attempt) · 3 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 6th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how CHI defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 92% offensive snaps · 7.5 targets/game, 35.4% target share · 51.7% air-yard share (aDOT 11.4) · 5.5 catches for 73.5 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 94.2% offensive snaps, 8.3 targets/game, 30.7% target share, 40.1% air-yard share (aDOT 10.2), 4.9 catches for 61.6 yards/game, 2 TD. (2025) TD luck: 2 scored vs 8.6 expected — under expectation, positive regression due. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 5.4 · median 14.3 · ceiling 25.3 — 68% chance of 10+, 43% of 15+, 23% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Justin Jefferson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ CHI | Sun, Sep 20 | 11.7 | 14.7 | 17.8 | 6th · soft |
| W3 | @ TB | Sun, Sep 27 | 11.2 | 14.2 | 17.2 | 27th · tough |
| W4 | vs MIA | Sun, Oct 4 | 11.5 | 14.6 | 17.6 | 22nd |
| W5 | @ NO | Sun, Oct 11 | 10.7 | 13.6 | 16.6 | 11th |
| W7 | vs IND | Sun, Oct 25 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 16.5 | 7th · soft |
| W8 | @ DET | Sun, Nov 1 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 16.4 | 3rd · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | GB | 8/9 rec, 92 yd, 2 TD | 23.2 | 27.2 | 31.2 |