MIN — Week 9 vs BUF, who allow the 3rd-most points to WRs — recently Tre Tucker put up 21.7 on them (W6), Rashod Bateman put up 2.2 on them (W8).
14.3 PPR points against DET on 5/9 rec, 33 yd, 1 TD — missed his 17.7 projection by 3.4. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Justin Jefferson projects 17.7 PPR points in week 9 vs BUF — the 3rd-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 13.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs BUF: 269 passing yards a game allowed (7.05/attempt) · 2.1 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 3rd-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how BUF defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 69.5 receiving yards · 29% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 6 games): 80.3% offensive snaps · 6.7 targets/game, 27.4% target share · 34.4% air-yard share (aDOT 10) · 4.7 catches for 55.8 yards/game, 4 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 94.2% offensive snaps, 8.3 targets/game, 30.7% target share, 40.1% air-yard share (aDOT 10.2), 4.9 catches for 61.6 yards/game, 2 TD. (2026) TD luck: 4 scored vs 2.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 5.7 · median 14.4 · ceiling 24.7 — 68% chance of 10+, 46% of 15+, 27% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Justin Jefferson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs BUF | Mon, Nov 9 | 11.8 | 14.8 | 17.7 | 3rd · soft |
| W10 | @ GB | Sun, Nov 15 | 11.4 | 14.6 | 17.7 | 15th |
| W11 | @ SF | Sun, Nov 22 | 10.6 | 13.7 | 16.8 | 22nd |
| W12 | vs ATL | Sun, Nov 29 | 10.8 | 13.9 | 17.0 | 16th |
| W13 | vs CAR | Sun, Dec 6 | 10.5 | 13.6 | 16.6 | 25th · tough |
| W14 | @ NE | Thu, Dec 10 | 10.6 | 13.8 | 17.0 | 11th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | DET | 5/9 rec, 33 yd, 1 TD | 9.3 | 11.8 | 14.3 |
| W7 | IND | 4/7 rec, 44 yd | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.4 |
| W5 | NO | 1 car, -11 yd · 6/7 rec, 79 yd, 1 TD | 12.8 | 15.8 | 18.8 |
| W3 | TB | 2/2 rec, 32 yd | 3.2 | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| W2 | CHI | 3/6 rec, 55 yd | 5.5 | 7.0 | 8.5 |
| W1 | GB | 8/9 rec, 92 yd, 2 TD | 23.2 | 27.2 | 31.2 |