SF — Week 2 vs MIA, who allow the 4th-most points to RBs — recently Ashton Jeanty put up 26.7 on them (W1).
8.0 PPR points against LAR on 14 car, 65 yd · 1/1 rec, 5 yd — beat his 1.9 projection by 6.1. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Kaelon Black projects 7.1 PPR points in week 2 vs MIA — the 4th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs MIA: 130 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.51 a carry · 0 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 4th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIA defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 43% offensive snaps · 10.5 carries/game (36.8% of team carries) · 36.7% of the backfield's touches · 0.5 targets/game, 1.5% target share · 45 rushing and 2.5 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.9 · median 5.5 · ceiling 13.9 — 22% chance of 10+, 9% of 15+, 4% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Kaelon Black in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs MIA | Sun, Sep 20 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 4th · soft |
| W3 | vs ARI | Sun, Sep 27 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 25th · tough |
| W4 | vs DEN | Sun, Oct 4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2nd · soft |
| W5 | @ SEA | Sun, Oct 11 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 22nd |
| W6 | vs WAS | Mon, Oct 19 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 24th |
| W7 | @ ATL | Sun, Oct 25 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 29th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | LAR | 14 car, 65 yd · 1/1 rec, 5 yd | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.0 |