SF — Week 9 vs LV, who allow the 4th-most points to RBs — recently Kyren Williams put up 16.1 on them (W7), Braelon Allen put up 21.3 on them (W8).
Kaelon Black projects 5.8 PPR points in week 9 vs LV — the 4th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 5.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs LV: 144.9 rushing yards a game allowed at 5.11 a carry · 1.3 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 4th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how LV defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 23% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 29.3% offensive snaps · 8.1 carries/game (29.8% of team carries) · 30.6% of the backfield's touches · 0.9 targets/game, 2.6% target share · 33.3 rushing and 0.6 receiving yards/game, 1 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 2.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.8 · median 4.4 · ceiling 11.5 — 13% chance of 10+, 6% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Kaelon Black in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 8 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4th · soft |
| W10 | @ DAL | Sun, Nov 15 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3rd · soft |
| W11 | vs MIN | Sun, Nov 22 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 22nd |
| W12 | vs SEA | Sun, Nov 29 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 18th |
| W13 | @ NYG | Sun, Dec 6 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 19th |
| W14 | vs LAR | Sun, Dec 13 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 28th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | ATL | 12 car, 63 yd, 1 TD · 1/3 rec, -4 yd · 1 fum | 9.9 | 10.4 | 10.9 |
| W6 | WAS | 8 car, 34 yd · 1/1 rec, 3 yd | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| W5 | SEA | 6 car, 16 yd | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| W4 | DEN | 6 car, 13 yd | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| W3 | ARI | 4 car, 17 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| W2 | MIA | 7 car, 25 yd | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| W1 | LAR | 14 car, 65 yd · 1/1 rec, 5 yd | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.0 |