CLE — Week 9 at NO, who allow the 19th-most points to WRs — recently Malik Nabers put up 16.5 on them (W6), DK Metcalf put up 5.6 on them (W7).
6.7 PPR points against PIT on 3/4 rec, 37 yd — missed his 10.2 projection by 3.5. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
KC Concepcion Jr. projects 10.3 PPR points in week 9 at NO — the 19th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 12.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs NO: 249.7 passing yards a game allowed (7.6/attempt) · 1.6 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 19th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how NO defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 71.5% offensive snaps · 6.1 targets/game, 20.3% target share · 19.8% air-yard share (aDOT 7.4) · 4.1 catches for 44 yards/game, 0 TD. (2026) TD luck: 0 scored vs 1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2 · median 6.8 · ceiling 16.2 — 34% chance of 10+, 15% of 15+, 4% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare KC Concepcion Jr. in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ NO | Sun, Nov 8 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 19th |
| W10 | vs HOU | Sun, Nov 15 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 4th · soft |
| W12 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 29 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 8th · soft |
| W13 | vs CIN | Sun, Dec 6 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 12th |
| W14 | vs ATL | Sun, Dec 13 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 16th |
| W15 | @ NYG | Sun, Dec 20 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 17th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | PIT | 3/4 rec, 37 yd | 3.7 | 5.2 | 6.7 |
| W7 | TEN | 3 car, 23 yd · 8/10 rec, 129 yd | 15.2 | 19.2 | 23.2 |
| W6 | BAL | 2 car, 2 yd · 4/6 rec, 37 yd | 3.9 | 5.9 | 7.9 |
| W5 | NYJ | 1/1 rec, 5 yd | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| W4 | PIT | 5/8 rec, 64 yd | 6.4 | 8.9 | 11.4 |
| W3 | CAR | 2/9 rec, 9 yd | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| W2 | TB | 1 car, -6 yd · 6/6 rec, 28 yd | 2.2 | 5.2 | 8.2 |
| W1 | JAX | 3 car, 15 yd · 4/5 rec, 43 yd · 1 fum | 3.8 | 5.8 | 7.8 |