LAC — Week 9 vs HOU, who allow the 14th-most points to RBs — recently Bhayshul Tuten put up 20.7 on them (W6), Cam Skattebo put up 18.1 on them (W7).
5.3 PPR points against LAR on 4 car, 6 yd · 3/3 rec, 17 yd — right on his 5.9 projection (-0.6). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Keaton Mitchell projects 5.2 PPR points in week 9 vs HOU — the 14th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 3.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs HOU: 98 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.83 a carry · 1.3 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 14th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how HOU defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 10.5 rushing yards · 9.5 receiving yards · 14% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 31.6% offensive snaps · 5.6 carries/game (20.1% of team carries) · 27.7% of the backfield's touches · 2.6 targets/game, 9.2% target share · 20.7 rushing and 9.9 receiving yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (13 games): 17.5% offensive snaps, 4.5 carries/game (14% of team carries), 18.3% of the backfield's touches, 0.9 targets/game, 4.2% target share, 26.2 rushing and 4.8 receiving yards/game, 1 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 1.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.2 · median 3.5 · ceiling 9.6 — 9% chance of 10+, 2% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Keaton Mitchell in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs HOU | Sun, Nov 8 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 14th |
| W10 | @ BAL | Mon, Nov 16 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 23rd |
| W11 | vs NYJ | Sun, Nov 22 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 12th |
| W12 | vs NE | Sun, Nov 29 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 25th · tough |
| W13 | @ TB | Sun, Dec 6 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 31st · tough |
| W14 | @ LV | Sun, Dec 13 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | LAR | 4 car, 6 yd · 3/3 rec, 17 yd | 2.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 |
| W6 | KC | 2 car, 4 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| W5 | DEN | 6 car, 11 yd · 3/4 rec, 18 yd | 2.9 | 4.4 | 5.9 |
| W4 | SEA | 10 car, 39 yd · 5/6 rec, 24 yd | 6.3 | 8.8 | 11.3 |
| W3 | BUF | 8 car, 52 yd · 3/3 rec, -5 yd, 1 TD | 10.7 | 12.2 | 13.7 |
| W2 | LV | 5 car, 24 yd · 1/1 rec, 15 yd | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
| W1 | ARI | 4 car, 9 yd | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |