IND — Week 1 vs BAL, who allow the 5th-most points to WRs — recently Christian Watson put up 17.3 on them (W17), Calvin Austin put up 11.5 on them (W18).
Keenan Allen projects 7.9 PPR points in week 1 vs BAL — the 5th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 7.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs BAL: 259 passing yards a game allowed (7.04/attempt) · 1.4 TDs/gm through the air · 0.7 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 5th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how BAL defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 22% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 55.5% offensive snaps · 22.1% target share · 22.8% air-yard share (aDOT 8.4). TD luck: 4 scored vs 6.5 expected — under expectation, positive regression due. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 1 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.9 · median 5.4 · ceiling 12.4 — 19% chance of 10+, 7% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Keenan Allen in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | vs BAL | Sun, Sep 13 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 5th · soft |
| W2 | @ KC | Sun, Sep 20 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 28th · tough |
| W3 | vs HOU | Sun, Sep 27 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 27th · tough |
| W4 | @ WAS | Sun, Oct 4 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 6th · soft |
| W5 | @ PIT | Sun, Oct 11 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 8th · soft |
| W6 | vs TEN | Sun, Oct 18 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 4th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W18 | DEN | 7/13 rec, 36 yd | 3.6 | 7.1 | 10.6 |
| W17 | HOU | 1/3 rec, 17 yd | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| W16 | DAL | 5/5 rec, 44 yd | 4.4 | 6.9 | 9.4 |
| W15 | KC | 5/7 rec, 36 yd | 3.6 | 6.1 | 8.6 |
| W14 | PHI | 3/3 rec, 22 yd | 2.2 | 3.7 | 5.2 |
| W13 | LV | 4/5 rec, 30 yd | 3.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 |
| W11 | JAX | 4/6 rec, 53 yd | 5.3 | 7.3 | 9.3 |
| W10 | PIT | 2/5 rec, 19 yd | 1.9 | 2.9 | 3.9 |
| W9 | TEN | 2/5 rec, 41 yd | 4.1 | 5.1 | 6.1 |
| W8 | MIN | 4/5 rec, 44 yd | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.4 |
| W7 | IND | 11/14 rec, 119 yd, 1 TD | 17.9 | 23.4 | 28.9 |
| W6 | MIA | 4/7 rec, 27 yd | 2.7 | 4.7 | 6.7 |
| W5 | WAS | 5/9 rec, 58 yd | 5.8 | 8.3 | 10.8 |
| W4 | NYG | 5/7 rec, 37 yd | 3.7 | 6.2 | 8.7 |
| W3 | DEN | 7/11 rec, 65 yd, 1 TD | 12.5 | 16.0 | 19.5 |
| W2 | LV | 5/7 rec, 61 yd, 1 TD | 12.1 | 14.6 | 17.1 |
| W1 | KC | 7/10 rec, 68 yd, 1 TD | 12.8 | 16.3 | 19.8 |