BUF — Week 9 at MIN, who allow the 30th-most points to WRs — recently Keenan Allen put up 3.1 on them (W7), Jameson Williams put up 13 on them (W8).
1.4 PPR points against BAL on 1/3 rec, 4 yd — missed his 8.3 projection by 6.9. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Keon Coleman projects 6.9 PPR points in week 9 at MIN — the 30th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 8.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs MIN: 180.1 passing yards a game allowed (6.21/attempt) · 0.6 TDs/gm through the air · 1.1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 30th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIN defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 30.5 receiving yards · 19% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 68.9% offensive snaps · 3.9 targets/game, 13.7% target share · 25.3% air-yard share (aDOT 15.6) · 2.9 catches for 41 yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (12 games): 65.2% offensive snaps, 4.9 targets/game, 16.7% target share, 22.8% air-yard share (aDOT 11.2), 3.2 catches for 33.7 yards/game, 4 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 2.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.4 · median 4.5 · ceiling 11.8 — 16% chance of 10+, 5% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Keon Coleman in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ MIN | Mon, Nov 9 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 30th · tough |
| W10 | @ NYJ | Sun, Nov 15 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 21st |
| W11 | vs MIA | Sun, Nov 22 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 29th · tough |
| W12 | vs KC | Thu, Nov 26 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 31st · tough |
| W13 | @ NE | Sun, Dec 6 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 11th |
| W14 | @ GB | Sun, Dec 13 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 15th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | BAL | 1/3 rec, 4 yd | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| W6 | LV | 4/6 rec, 59 yd, 1 TD | 11.9 | 13.9 | 15.9 |
| W5 | LAR | 1/2 rec, 7 yd, 1 TD | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.7 |
| W4 | NE | 6/7 rec, 116 yd, 1 TD | 17.6 | 20.6 | 23.6 |
| W3 | LAC | 1/2 rec, 37 yd | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| W2 | DET | 6/6 rec, 63 yd | 6.3 | 9.3 | 12.3 |
| W1 | HOU | 1/1 rec, 1 yd | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 |