ATL — Week 9 vs CIN, who allow the 21st-most points to RBs — recently Derrick Henry put up 4.9 on them (W7), Tony Pollard put up 25.7 on them (W8).
2.5 PPR points against TB on 4 car, 12 yd · 1/1 rec, 3 yd. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Khalil Herbert projects 3.6 PPR points in week 9 vs CIN — the 21st-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 3.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CIN: 122.3 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.89 a carry · 1 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 21st-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CIN defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 3 games): 17.5% offensive snaps · 2.3 carries/game (8.6% of team carries) · 14.5% of the backfield's touches · 1.7 targets/game, 6.2% target share · 9.3 rushing and 8 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (5 games): 13.6% offensive snaps, 3.2 carries/game (13.1% of team carries), 15.7% of the backfield's touches, 0.8 targets/game, 3.1% target share, 10.4 rushing and 0.8 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. (2025) TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.3 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.6 · median 2.6 · ceiling 8.4 — 6% chance of 10+, 1% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Khalil Herbert in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs CIN | Sun, Nov 8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 21st |
| W10 | vs KC | Sun, Nov 15 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 24th |
| W12 | @ MIN | Sun, Nov 29 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 22nd |
| W13 | vs DET | Sun, Dec 6 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 29th · tough |
| W14 | @ CLE | Sun, Dec 13 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 16th |
| W15 | @ WAS | Sun, Dec 20 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 26th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | TB | 4 car, 12 yd · 1/1 rec, 3 yd | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| W7 | SF | 2 car, 9 yd · 1/1 rec, 19 yd | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.8 |