BAL — Week 2 vs NO, who allow the 17th-most points to QBs — recently Jared Goff put up 16.4 on them (W1).
25.0 PPR points against IND on 17/25, 324 pass yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 40 yd, 1 TD · 1 fum — beat his 20.9 projection by 4.1. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Lamar Jackson projects 20.4 PPR points in week 2 vs NO — the 17th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 25 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs NO: 206 passing yards a game allowed (5.28/attempt) · 2 passing TDs/gm · 1 sacks and 0 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 17th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how NO defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 100% offensive snaps · 28 attempts/game, 67.9% completions, 10 yards/attempt, 279.5 passing yards/game, 2 TD to 1 INT · 5.5 carries/game. 2025 baseline (13 games): 92.2% offensive snaps, 23.2 attempts/game, 63.6% completions, 8.4 yards/attempt, 196.1 passing yards/game, 21 TD to 7 INT, 5.2 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 21 thrown vs 18.3 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 8.5 · median 20.8 · ceiling 32 — 86% chance of 10+, 72% of 15+, 53% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Lamar Jackson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs NO | Sun, Sep 20 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 17th |
| W3 | @ DAL | Sun, Sep 27 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 4th · soft |
| W4 | vs TEN | Sun, Oct 4 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 29th · tough |
| W5 | @ ATL | Sun, Oct 11 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 25th · tough |
| W6 | @ CLE | Sun, Oct 18 | 20.9 | 20.9 | 20.9 | 5th · soft |
| W7 | vs CIN | Sun, Oct 25 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 27th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | IND | 17/25, 324 pass yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 40 yd, 1 TD · 1 fum | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |