DEN — Week 1 at KC, who allow the 28th-most points to WRs — recently Courtland Sutton put up 4 on them (W17), Tre Tucker put up 3.4 on them (W18).
Lil'Jordan Humphrey projects 2.1 PPR points in week 1 at KC — the 28th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 6.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs KC: 205.1 passing yards a game allowed (6.85/attempt) · 1.1 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 28th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how KC defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 7% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 48.4% offensive snaps · 11.1% target share · 15% air-yard share (aDOT 11.1). TD luck: 1 scored vs 2.3 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Lil'Jordan Humphrey in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | @ KC | Mon, Sep 14 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 28th · tough |
| W2 | vs JAX | Sun, Sep 20 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 20th |
| W3 | vs LAR | Sun, Sep 27 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 12th |
| W4 | @ SF | Sun, Oct 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 13th |
| W5 | @ LAC | Sun, Oct 11 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 24th |
| W6 | vs SEA | Thu, Oct 15 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 29th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W17 | KC | 2/5 rec, 23 yd | 2.3 | 3.3 | 4.3 |
| W16 | JAX | 1/2 rec, 9 yd | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| W15 | GB | 3/4 rec, 42 yd, 1 TD | 10.2 | 11.7 | 13.2 |
| W14 | LV | 3/3 rec, 27 yd | 2.7 | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| W6 | PHI | 4/8 rec, 55 yd | 5.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 |