NE — Week 1 at SEA, who allow the 29th-most points to WRs — recently Jalen Coker put up 1.6 on them (W17), Jauan Jennings put up 3.5 on them (W18).
Mack Hollins projects 3.6 PPR points in week 1 at SEA — the 29th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 9.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs SEA: 212.9 passing yards a game allowed (6.06/attempt) · 1.2 TDs/gm through the air · 1.1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 29th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how SEA defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 24.5 receiving yards · 9% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 67.7% offensive snaps · 16.2% target share · 20.6% air-yard share (aDOT 13.1). TD luck: 2 scored vs 3.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 1 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.1 · median 2.4 · ceiling 5.8 — 1% chance of 10+, 0% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Mack Hollins in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | @ SEA | Wed, Sep 9 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 29th · tough |
| W2 | vs PIT | Sun, Sep 20 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 8th · soft |
| W3 | @ JAX | Sun, Sep 27 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 20th |
| W4 | @ BUF | Sun, Oct 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 23rd |
| W5 | vs LV | Sun, Oct 11 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 11th |
| W6 | vs NYJ | Sun, Oct 18 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 15th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W16 | BAL | 7/9 rec, 69 yd | 6.9 | 10.4 | 13.9 |
| W15 | BUF | 4/8 rec, 41 yd | 4.1 | 6.1 | 8.1 |
| W13 | NYG | 3/4 rec, 23 yd | 2.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 |
| W12 | CIN | 2/6 rec, 30 yd | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
| W11 | NYJ | 4/5 rec, 64 yd | 6.4 | 8.4 | 10.4 |
| W10 | TB | 6/10 rec, 106 yd | 10.6 | 13.6 | 16.6 |
| W9 | ATL | 2/2 rec, 9 yd | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| W8 | CLE | 7/7 rec, 89 yd | 8.9 | 12.4 | 15.9 |
| W7 | TEN | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/2 rec, 49 yd | 5.3 | 6.3 | 7.3 |
| W6 | NO | 2/3 rec, 28 yd | 2.8 | 3.8 | 4.8 |
| W4 | CAR | 1/1 rec, 4 yd, 1 TD | 6.4 | 6.9 | 7.4 |
| W3 | PIT | 4/4 rec, 27 yd | 2.7 | 4.7 | 6.7 |
| W2 | MIA | 1/2 rec, 8 yd, 1 TD | 6.8 | 7.3 | 7.8 |
| W1 | LV | 1/2 rec, 3 yd | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 |