DAL — Week 1 at NYG, who allow the 5th-most points to RBs — recently Ashton Jeanty put up 7.3 on them (W17), Jaydon Blue put up 12.4 on them (W18).
Malik Davis projects 4.6 PPR points in week 1 at NYG — the 5th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 8.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs NYG: 144.3 rushing yards a game allowed at 5.32 a carry · 1.2 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 5th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how NYG defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 12.5 rushing yards · 11% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 20.7% offensive snaps · 5.2 carries/game · 1.4% target share. TD luck: 2 scored vs 2.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 1 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.2 · median 2.9 · ceiling 10.8 — 13% chance of 10+, 3% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Malik Davis in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | @ NYG | Sun, Sep 13 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 5th · soft |
| W2 | vs WAS | Sun, Sep 20 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 4th · soft |
| W3 | vs BAL | Sun, Sep 27 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 14th |
| W4 | @ HOU | Sun, Oct 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 24th |
| W5 | vs TB | Thu, Oct 8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 16th |
| W6 | @ GB | Sun, Oct 18 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 20th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W17 | WAS | 20 car, 103 yd · 0/2 rec, 0 yd | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| W16 | LAC | 8 car, 23 yd | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| W15 | MIN | 8 car, 21 yd, 1 TD · 2/3 rec, 16 yd | 9.7 | 10.7 | 11.7 |
| W14 | DET | 3 car, 6 yd | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| W13 | KC | 3 car, 47 yd, 1 TD | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| W12 | PHI | 3 car, 24 yd | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| W11 | LV | 4 car, 20 yd | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| W9 | ARI | 1 car, 3 yd | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| W8 | DEN | 2 car, 3 yd | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |