MIA — Week 9 vs DET, who allow the 1st-most points to QBs — recently Jordan Love put up 18 on them (W7), Kyler Murray put up 20.9 on them (W8).
15.6 PPR points against NE on 21/32, 211 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd — right on his 13.5 projection (+2.1). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Malik Willis projects 17.8 PPR points in week 9 vs DET — the 1st-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 20.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs DET: 298.7 passing yards a game allowed (7.29/attempt) · 2.6 passing TDs/gm · 3.4 sacks and 0.7 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 20.9 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 1st-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how DET defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 208.5 passing yards · 1.32 passing TDs · 30.5 rushing yards · 29% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 100% offensive snaps · 26.1 attempts/game, 59% completions, 6.9 yards/attempt, 181.1 passing yards/game, 6 TD to 5 INT · 5.1 carries/game. 2025 baseline (4 games): 42.3% offensive snaps, 8.8 attempts/game, 85.7% completions, 12.1 yards/attempt, 105.5 passing yards/game, 3 TD to 0 INT, 5.5 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 6 thrown vs 6.4 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 4.6 · median 17.5 · ceiling 30 — 78% chance of 10+, 61% of 15+, 42% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Malik Willis in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs DET | Sun, Nov 8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 1st · soft |
| W10 | @ IND | Sun, Nov 15 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15th |
| W11 | @ BUF | Sun, Nov 22 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 11th |
| W12 | vs NYJ | Sun, Nov 29 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 16th |
| W13 | @ DEN | Sun, Dec 6 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 19th |
| W14 | vs CHI | Sun, Dec 13 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 8th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | NE | 21/32, 211 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 |
| W7 | NYJ | 14/21, 208 pass yd, 2 TD · 8 car, 37 yd, 1 TD | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 |
| W5 | CIN | 15/27, 137 pass yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 8 car, 74 yd, 1 TD · 1 fum | 20.9 | 20.9 | 20.9 |
| W4 | MIN | 9/17, 85 pass yd · 2 car, 11 yd · 1 fum | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| W3 | KC | 20/36, 210 pass yd, 1 INT · 9 car, 56 yd · 1 fum | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| W2 | SF | 14/23, 197 pass yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 6 yd | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| W1 | LV | 15/27, 220 pass yd, 1 INT · 6 car, 39 yd, 1 TD | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 |