MIA — Week 2 at SF, who allow the 31st-most points to QBs — recently Matthew Stafford put up 5.1 on them (W1).
17.7 PPR points against LV on 15/27, 220 pass yd, 1 INT · 6 car, 39 yd, 1 TD — right on his 16.9 projection (+0.8). The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Malik Willis projects 18.2 PPR points in week 2 at SF — the 31st-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 17.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs SF: 168 passing yards a game allowed (6/attempt) · 0 passing TDs/gm · 0 sacks and 1 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 8 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 31st-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how SF defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 100% offensive snaps · 25 attempts/game, 58% completions, 8.3 yards/attempt, 208.5 passing yards/game, 1 TD to 1 INT · 4 carries/game. 2025 baseline (4 games): 42.3% offensive snaps, 8.8 attempts/game, 85.7% completions, 12.1 yards/attempt, 105.5 passing yards/game, 3 TD to 0 INT, 5.5 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 3 thrown vs 2.4 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 9 · median 18.5 · ceiling 27.2 — 86% chance of 10+, 67% of 15+, 41% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Malik Willis in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
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| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ SF | Sun, Sep 20 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 31st · tough |
| W3 | vs KC | Sun, Sep 27 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 32nd · tough |
| W4 | @ MIN | Sun, Oct 4 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 11th |
| W5 | vs CIN | Sun, Oct 11 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 27th · tough |
| W7 | @ NYJ | Sun, Oct 25 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 26th · tough |
| W8 | vs NE | Sun, Nov 1 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 23rd |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | LV | 15/27, 220 pass yd, 1 INT · 6 car, 39 yd, 1 TD | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 |