BAL — Week 9 vs JAX, who allow the 23rd-most points to TEs — recently Foster Moreau put up 12.7 on them (W6), Tyler Warren put up 1.8 on them (W8).
4.4 PPR points against BUF on 3/4 rec, 14 yd — missed his 8.8 projection by 4.4. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Mark Andrews projects 7.4 PPR points in week 9 vs JAX — the 23rd-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 3.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs JAX: 264.3 passing yards a game allowed (7.64/attempt) · 1.1 TDs/gm through the air · 1.3 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 23rd-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how JAX defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 19.5 receiving yards · 15% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 63.9% offensive snaps · 5.1 targets/game, 18.9% target share · 15.9% air-yard share (aDOT 6.6) · 3.6 catches for 27.3 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 61.7% offensive snaps, 4.1 targets/game, 17.1% target share, 16.3% air-yard share (aDOT 7.3), 2.8 catches for 24.8 yards/game, 6 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 2.4 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.9 · median 4.4 · ceiling 11.8 — 16% chance of 10+, 5% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Mark Andrews in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs JAX | Thu, Nov 5 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 23rd |
| W10 | vs LAC | Mon, Nov 16 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 26th · tough |
| W11 | @ CAR | Sun, Nov 22 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 13th |
| W12 | @ HOU | Sun, Nov 29 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 28th · tough |
| W14 | vs TB | Sun, Dec 13 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 12th |
| W15 | @ PIT | Sun, Dec 20 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 17th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | BUF | 3/4 rec, 14 yd | 1.4 | 2.9 | 4.4 |
| W7 | CIN | 3/4 rec, 23 yd | 2.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 |
| W6 | CLE | 1/3 rec, 4 yd | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| W5 | ATL | 4/6 rec, 28 yd · 1 fum | 0.8 | 2.8 | 4.8 |
| W4 | TEN | 5/6 rec, 27 yd, 1 TD | 8.7 | 11.2 | 13.7 |
| W3 | DAL | 3/5 rec, 24 yd | 2.4 | 3.9 | 5.4 |
| W2 | NO | 6/7 rec, 49 yd | 4.9 | 7.9 | 10.9 |
| W1 | IND | 4/6 rec, 49 yd | 4.9 | 6.9 | 8.9 |