GB — Week 9 at NE, who allow the 25th-most points to RBs — recently D'Andre Swift put up 15 on them (W7), Ollie Gordon II put up 6.9 on them (W8).
2.6 PPR points against CAR on 3 car, 7 yd · 1/1 rec, 9 yd — missed his 6.7 projection by 4.1. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
MarShawn Lloyd projects 4.5 PPR points in week 9 at NE — the 25th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs NE: 92.6 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.84 a carry · 0.8 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 25th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how NE defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 3.5 receiving yards · 17% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 35.6% offensive snaps · 7.1 carries/game (33.5% of team carries) · 37.6% of the backfield's touches · 2.1 targets/game, 6% target share · 18.6 rushing and 9.9 receiving yards/game, 3 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 2.7 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.7 · median 2.9 · ceiling 8.9 — 7% chance of 10+, 2% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare MarShawn Lloyd in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ NE | Sun, Nov 8 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 25th · tough |
| W10 | vs MIN | Sun, Nov 15 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 22nd |
| W12 | @ LAR | Wed, Nov 25 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 28th · tough |
| W13 | @ NO | Sun, Dec 6 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 1st · soft |
| W14 | vs BUF | Sun, Dec 13 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 6th · soft |
| W15 | vs MIA | Sun, Dec 20 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 10th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | CAR | 3 car, 7 yd · 1/1 rec, 9 yd | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| W7 | DET | 6 car, 20 yd · 2/2 rec, 15 yd | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| W6 | DAL | 8 car, 10 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| W5 | CHI | 10 car, 31 yd, 2 TD · 1/2 rec, 6 yd | 15.7 | 16.2 | 16.7 |
| W4 | TB | 7 car, 13 yd · 5/5 rec, 36 yd | 4.9 | 7.4 | 9.9 |
| W3 | ATL | 4 car, 11 yd · 2/3 rec, 7 yd | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 |
| W2 | NYJ | 6 car, 20 yd · 2/2 rec, 6 yd, 1 TD · 1 fum | 6.6 | 7.6 | 8.6 |
| W1 | MIN | 13 car, 37 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |