DEN — Week 9 at CAR, who allow the 25th-most points to WRs — recently Tez Johnson put up 10.7 on them (W7), Matthew Golden put up 13.9 on them (W8).
4.9 PPR points against KC on 2 car, 19 yd · 2/3 rec, 10 yd — right on his 4.9 projection (+0). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Marvin Mims Jr. projects 5.7 PPR points in week 9 at CAR — the 25th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 5.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CAR: 219.6 passing yards a game allowed (6.4/attempt) · 1.4 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 25th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how CAR defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 14.5 receiving yards · 16% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 6 games): 24.3% offensive snaps · 2.3 targets/game, 8.7% target share · 7.7% air-yard share (aDOT 4.1) · 1.5 catches for 15.3 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 36.9% offensive snaps, 3.4 targets/game, 9.9% target share, 9.7% air-yard share (aDOT 9.4), 2.5 catches for 21.5 yards/game, 2 TD. (2026) TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.3 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.5 · median 3.2 · ceiling 10.2 — 12% chance of 10+, 5% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Marvin Mims Jr. in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ CAR | Sun, Nov 8 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 25th · tough |
| W11 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 22 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 8th · soft |
| W12 | @ PIT | Fri, Nov 27 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 28th · tough |
| W13 | vs MIA | Sun, Dec 6 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 29th · tough |
| W14 | @ NYJ | Sun, Dec 13 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 21st |
| W15 | @ LV | Sun, Dec 20 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 8th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | KC | 2 car, 19 yd · 2/3 rec, 10 yd | 2.9 | 3.9 | 4.9 |
| W7 | ARI | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/2 rec, 53 yd | 5.6 | 6.6 | 7.6 |
| W6 | SEA | 2/4 rec, 13 yd | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 |
| W5 | LAC | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/2 rec, 6 yd | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| W4 | SF | 1/3 rec, 10 yd · 1 fum | -1.0 | -0.5 | 0.0 |