LV — Week 9 at SF, who allow the 25th-most points to TEs — recently Chig Okonkwo put up 6.9 on them (W6), Kyle Pitts Sr. put up 8.2 on them (W7).
10.3 PPR points against NYJ on 5/6 rec, 53 yd — right on his 7.5 projection (+2.8). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Michael Mayer projects 8.0 PPR points in week 9 at SF — the 25th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 11 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs SF: 223.9 passing yards a game allowed (6.32/attempt) · 1.4 TDs/gm through the air · 0.5 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 25th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how SF defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 32.5 receiving yards · 20% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 80.6% offensive snaps · 5.4 targets/game, 15.7% target share · 9.4% air-yard share (aDOT 5.1) · 4.5 catches for 43.9 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (13 games): 61.8% offensive snaps, 3.8 targets/game, 13.7% target share, 13.1% air-yard share (aDOT 4.8), 2.7 catches for 25.2 yards/game, 1 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 1.7 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.8 · median 5 · ceiling 11.8 — 16% chance of 10+, 4% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Michael Mayer in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ SF | Sun, Nov 8 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 25th · tough |
| W10 | vs SEA | Sun, Nov 15 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 30th · tough |
| W11 | @ DEN | Sun, Nov 22 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 9th |
| W12 | @ CLE | Sun, Nov 29 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 11th |
| W14 | vs LAC | Sun, Dec 13 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 26th · tough |
| W15 | vs DEN | Sun, Dec 20 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 9th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | NYJ | 5/6 rec, 53 yd | 5.3 | 7.8 | 10.3 |
| W7 | LAR | 3/3 rec, 32 yd | 3.2 | 4.7 | 6.2 |
| W6 | BUF | 7/9 rec, 95 yd | 9.5 | 13.0 | 16.5 |
| W5 | NE | 1/1 rec, 2 yd | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| W4 | KC | 8/10 rec, 82 yd | 8.2 | 12.2 | 16.2 |
| W3 | NO | 3/3 rec, 32 yd, 1 TD | 9.2 | 10.7 | 12.2 |
| W2 | LAC | 3/4 rec, 23 yd | 2.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 |
| W1 | MIA | 6/7 rec, 32 yd | 3.2 | 6.2 | 9.2 |