ARI · Questionable — Ribs — Week 9 at SEA, who allow the 32nd-most points to WRs — recently Cyrus Allen put up 1.8 on them (W7), Luther Burden III put up 11.6 on them (W8).
26.8 PPR points against DAL on 1 car, 17 yd · 8/15 rec, 111 yd, 1 TD — beat his 15.4 projection by 11.4. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Michael Wilson projects 12.9 PPR points in week 9 at SEA — the 32nd-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 14.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs SEA: 169.1 passing yards a game allowed (5.48/attempt) · 1.1 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 32nd-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how SEA defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 50.5 receiving yards · 26% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 88.9% offensive snaps · 10.1 targets/game, 25.9% target share · 41.3% air-yard share (aDOT 11.4) · 5.6 catches for 60.8 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 81.4% offensive snaps, 7.4 targets/game, 19.2% target share, 31.2% air-yard share (aDOT 11.9), 4.6 catches for 59.2 yards/game, 7 TD. (2026) TD luck: 2 scored vs 7.6 expected — under expectation, positive regression due. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2 · median 8.5 · ceiling 21.5 — 45% chance of 10+, 27% of 15+, 15% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Michael Wilson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ SEA | Sun, Nov 8 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 32nd · tough |
| W10 | vs LAR | Sun, Nov 15 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 24th |
| W11 | @ KC | Sun, Nov 22 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 31st · tough |
| W12 | vs WAS | Sun, Nov 29 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 15.2 | 14th |
| W13 | vs PHI | Sun, Dec 6 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 1st · soft |
| W15 | vs NYJ | Sun, Dec 20 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 13.7 | 21st |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | DAL | 1 car, 17 yd · 8/15 rec, 111 yd, 1 TD | 18.8 | 22.8 | 26.8 |
| W7 | DEN | 2 car, 11 yd · 4/8 rec, 55 yd | 6.6 | 8.6 | 10.6 |
| W6 | LAR | 4/7 rec, 32 yd | 3.2 | 5.2 | 7.2 |
| W5 | DET | 1/1, 7 pass yd · 4/7 rec, 30 yd | 3.3 | 5.3 | 7.3 |
| W4 | NYG | 7/13 rec, 95 yd | 9.5 | 13.0 | 16.5 |
| W3 | SF | 11/17 rec, 89 yd, 1 TD | 14.9 | 20.4 | 25.9 |
| W2 | SEA | 2/7 rec, 18 yd | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 |
| W1 | LAC | 5/7 rec, 56 yd | 5.6 | 8.1 | 10.6 |