SF · Questionable — Achilles — Week 9 vs LV, who allow the 8th-most points to WRs — recently Puka Nacua put up 13.8 on them (W7), Adonai Mitchell put up 20.2 on them (W8).
Mike Evans projects 16.4 PPR points in week 9 vs LV — the 8th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 17.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs LV: 250.8 passing yards a game allowed (7.9/attempt) · 2.3 TDs/gm through the air · 0.9 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 8th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how LV defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 50% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 6 games): 54% offensive snaps · 6.5 targets/game, 23.3% target share · 41.7% air-yard share (aDOT 14.6) · 4.5 catches for 70 yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (8 games): 65.6% offensive snaps, 7.8 targets/game, 24.3% target share, 34.8% air-yard share (aDOT 13.3), 3.8 catches for 46 yards/game, 3 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 2.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 6.9 · median 13.9 · ceiling 22.1 — 72% chance of 10+, 40% of 15+, 15% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Mike Evans in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 8 | 11.9 | 14.2 | 16.4 | 8th · soft |
| W10 | @ DAL | Sun, Nov 15 | 14.4 | 17.2 | 19.9 | 5th · soft |
| W11 | vs MIN | Sun, Nov 22 | 12.5 | 14.8 | 17.1 | 30th · tough |
| W12 | vs SEA | Sun, Nov 29 | 12.6 | 15.1 | 17.6 | 32nd · tough |
| W13 | @ NYG | Sun, Dec 6 | 13.4 | 16.1 | 18.7 | 17th |
| W14 | vs LAR | Sun, Dec 13 | 12.8 | 15.1 | 17.5 | 24th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W6 | WAS | 3/5 rec, 94 yd | 9.4 | 10.9 | 12.4 |
| W5 | SEA | 7/10 rec, 113 yd, 1 TD | 19.3 | 22.8 | 26.3 |
| W4 | DEN | 5/8 rec, 76 yd | 7.6 | 10.1 | 12.6 |
| W3 | ARI | 3/6 rec, 34 yd, 1 TD | 9.4 | 10.9 | 12.4 |
| W2 | MIA | 3/3 rec, 54 yd | 5.4 | 6.9 | 8.4 |
| W1 | LAR | 6/7 rec, 49 yd, 1 TD | 10.9 | 13.9 | 16.9 |