SF · Questionable — Hip — Week 2 vs MIA, who allow the 22nd-most points to WRs — recently Jack Bech put up 8.3 on them (W1).
16.9 PPR points against LAR on 6/7 rec, 49 yd, 1 TD — beat his 12.8 projection by 4.1. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Mike Evans projects 12.9 PPR points in week 2 vs MIA — the 22nd-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 16.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs MIA: 160 passing yards a game allowed (5.33/attempt) · 3 TDs/gm through the air · 2 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 22nd-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIA defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 75% offensive snaps · 5 targets/game, 17.4% target share · 29.6% air-yard share (aDOT 9.5) · 4.5 catches for 51.5 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (8 games): 65.6% offensive snaps, 7.8 targets/game, 24.3% target share, 34.8% air-yard share (aDOT 13.3), 3.8 catches for 46 yards/game, 3 TD. (2025) TD luck: 3 scored vs 4.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 5 · median 10.3 · ceiling 18.1 — 50% chance of 10+, 24% of 15+, 6% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Mike Evans in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs MIA | Sun, Sep 20 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 22nd |
| W3 | vs ARI | Sun, Sep 27 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 16th |
| W4 | vs DEN | Sun, Oct 4 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 29th · tough |
| W5 | @ SEA | Sun, Oct 11 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 30th · tough |
| W6 | vs WAS | Mon, Oct 19 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 14.4 | 15th |
| W7 | @ ATL | Sun, Oct 25 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 25th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | LAR | 6/7 rec, 49 yd, 1 TD | 10.9 | 13.9 | 16.9 |