CIN — Week 9 at ATL, who allow the 16th-most points to TEs — recently Colston Loveland put up 12.5 on them (W6), George Kittle put up 6.8 on them (W7).
17.6 PPR points against TEN on 4/6 rec, 76 yd, 1 TD — beat his 8.0 projection by 9.6. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Mike Gesicki projects 10.2 PPR points in week 9 at ATL — the 16th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 10.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs ATL: 237.5 passing yards a game allowed (6.6/attempt) · 1.4 TDs/gm through the air · 0.4 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 16th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how ATL defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 29.5 receiving yards · 28% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 6 games): 47.4% offensive snaps · 4 targets/game, 10.2% target share · 13.9% air-yard share (aDOT 11.1) · 2.8 catches for 40.2 yards/game, 6 TD. 2025 baseline (12 games): 38.5% offensive snaps, 3.5 targets/game, 10.3% target share, 13.1% air-yard share (aDOT 10), 2.3 catches for 25.6 yards/game, 2 TD. (2026) TD luck: 6 scored vs 3.1 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.2 · median 7.4 · ceiling 16.5 — 34% chance of 10+, 15% of 15+, 3% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Mike Gesicki in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ ATL | Sun, Nov 8 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 16th |
| W10 | vs PIT | Sun, Nov 15 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 17th |
| W11 | @ WAS | Mon, Nov 23 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 2nd · soft |
| W12 | vs NO | Sun, Nov 29 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 7th · soft |
| W13 | @ CLE | Sun, Dec 6 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 11th |
| W14 | vs KC | Sun, Dec 13 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 6th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | TEN | 4/6 rec, 76 yd, 1 TD | 13.6 | 15.6 | 17.6 |
| W7 | BAL | 1/1 rec, 6 yd, 1 TD | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.6 |
| W5 | MIA | 1/2 rec, 4 yd, 1 TD | 6.4 | 6.9 | 7.4 |
| W4 | JAX | 3/5 rec, 40 yd, 1 TD | 10.0 | 11.5 | 13.0 |
| W3 | PIT | 3/3 rec, 37 yd, 1 TD | 9.7 | 11.2 | 12.7 |
| W1 | TB | 5/7 rec, 78 yd, 1 TD | 13.8 | 16.3 | 18.8 |