NYG — Week 1 vs DAL, who allow the 8th-most points to RBs — recently Jacory Croskey-Merritt put up 22.5 on them (W17), Tyrone Tracy put up 19.9 on them (W18).
Najee Harris projects 3.7 PPR points in week 1 vs DAL — the 8th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 3.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs DAL: 125.2 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.74 a carry · 1.4 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 8th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how DAL defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 22% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 21.7% offensive snaps · 5 carries/game · 3.4% target share. TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 1 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.4 · median 2.4 · ceiling 8.5 — 7% chance of 10+, 1% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Najee Harris in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | vs DAL | Sun, Sep 13 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 8th · soft |
| W2 | @ LAR | Mon, Sep 21 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 25th · tough |
| W3 | vs TEN | Sun, Sep 27 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 12th |
| W4 | vs ARI | Sun, Oct 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3rd · soft |
| W5 | @ WAS | Sun, Oct 11 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4th · soft |
| W6 | vs NO | Sun, Oct 18 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 18th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W3 | DEN | 6 car, 28 yd | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| W2 | LV | 8 car, 28 yd · 2/2 rec, 20 yd | 4.8 | 5.8 | 6.8 |
| W1 | KC | 1 car, 5 yd · 1/1 rec, 5 yd | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 |