HOU — Week 9 at LAC, who allow the 18th-most points to WRs — recently Xavier Worthy put up 7.3 on them (W6), Puka Nacua put up 14 on them (W8).
Nico Collins projects 17.8 PPR points in week 9 at LAC — the 18th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs LAC: 207.7 passing yards a game allowed (7.42/attempt) · 1.1 TDs/gm through the air · 0.9 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 18th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how LAC defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 69.5 receiving yards · 32% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 5 games): 70.4% offensive snaps · 7 targets/game, 22.5% target share · 29.4% air-yard share (aDOT 12.5) · 4.8 catches for 65.8 yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 77.2% offensive snaps, 8 targets/game, 24.2% target share, 35.1% air-yard share (aDOT 12.7), 4.7 catches for 74.5 yards/game, 7 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 2.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 6.3 · median 14.7 · ceiling 24.6 — 72% chance of 10+, 47% of 15+, 27% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Nico Collins in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ LAC | Sun, Nov 8 | 12.4 | 15.1 | 17.8 | 18th |
| W10 | @ CLE | Sun, Nov 15 | 11.2 | 13.8 | 16.5 | 20th |
| W11 | vs IND | Thu, Nov 19 | 11.8 | 14.5 | 17.2 | 23rd |
| W12 | vs BAL | Sun, Nov 29 | 11.4 | 14.2 | 17.0 | 10th |
| W13 | @ PIT | Sun, Dec 6 | 12.1 | 14.7 | 17.4 | 28th · tough |
| W14 | @ WAS | Sun, Dec 13 | 13.0 | 15.9 | 18.7 | 14th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | NYG | 2/5 rec, 6 yd | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| W6 | JAX | 1 car, 5 yd · 3/5 rec, 74 yd | 7.9 | 9.4 | 10.9 |
| W5 | TEN | 5/7 rec, 56 yd | 5.6 | 8.1 | 10.6 |
| W4 | DAL | 7/8 rec, 118 yd, 2 TD | 23.8 | 27.3 | 30.8 |
| W1 | BUF | 1 car, 7 yd · 7/10 rec, 75 yd, 1 TD | 14.2 | 17.7 | 21.2 |