NO — Week 2 at BAL, who allow the 17th-most points to TEs — recently Tyler Warren put up 7.3 on them (W1).
13.3 PPR points against DET on 4/8 rec, 33 yd, 1 TD — beat his 3.4 projection by 9.9. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Noah Fant projects 5.2 PPR points in week 2 at BAL — the 17th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 13.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs BAL: 166 passing yards a game allowed (5.35/attempt) · 1 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 17th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how BAL defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 41% offensive snaps · 4 targets/game, 7.7% target share · 5% air-yard share (aDOT 6) · 2 catches for 16.5 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (13 games): 37.9% offensive snaps, 3.2 targets/game, 9.2% target share, 3.7% air-yard share (aDOT 3.3), 2.6 catches for 22.2 yards/game, 3 TD. (2025) TD luck: 3 scored vs 2.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.9 · median 3.3 · ceiling 8.6 — 7% chance of 10+, 1% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Noah Fant in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ BAL | Sun, Sep 20 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 17th |
| W3 | vs LV | Sun, Sep 27 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 29th · tough |
| W4 | vs ATL | Mon, Oct 5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 7th · soft |
| W5 | vs MIN | Sun, Oct 11 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 9th |
| W6 | @ NYG | Sun, Oct 18 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 25th · tough |
| W7 | vs PIT | Sun, Oct 25 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 | – |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DET | 4/8 rec, 33 yd, 1 TD | 9.3 | 11.3 | 13.3 |