KC — Week 9 vs NYJ, who allow the 18th-most points to TEs — recently Greg Dulcich put up 8.6 on them (W7), Brock Bowers put up 21.2 on them (W8).
9.5 PPR points against DEN on 2/2 rec, 15 yd, 1 TD — beat his 3.7 projection by 5.8. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Noah Gray projects 4.4 PPR points in week 9 vs NYJ — the 18th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 8.4 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs NYJ: 208.4 passing yards a game allowed (6.97/attempt) · 1.8 TDs/gm through the air · 0.1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 18th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how NYJ defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 14.5 receiving yards · 16% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 58.1% offensive snaps · 2.3 targets/game, 7.9% target share · 9% air-yard share (aDOT 6.4) · 2 catches for 24.7 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (14 games): 52.1% offensive snaps, 2.6 targets/game, 8.2% target share, 6% air-yard share (aDOT 6.5), 1.5 catches for 12.7 yards/game, 0 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 0.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.1 · median 2.7 · ceiling 7.2 — 4% chance of 10+, 0% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Noah Gray in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs NYJ | Sun, Nov 8 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 18th |
| W10 | @ ATL | Sun, Nov 15 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 16th |
| W11 | vs ARI | Sun, Nov 22 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 8th · soft |
| W12 | @ BUF | Thu, Nov 26 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 14th |
| W13 | @ LAR | Thu, Dec 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 27th · tough |
| W14 | @ CIN | Sun, Dec 13 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 10th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | DEN | 2/2 rec, 15 yd, 1 TD | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 |
| W7 | SEA | 3/3 rec, 44 yd | 4.4 | 5.9 | 7.4 |
| W6 | LAC | 3/3 rec, 53 yd | 5.3 | 6.8 | 8.3 |
| W4 | LV | 2/3 rec, 17 yd | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| W3 | MIA | 3/3 rec, 39 yd | 3.9 | 5.4 | 6.9 |
| W1 | DEN | 1/1 rec, 5 yd | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |