DEN — Week 2 vs JAX, who allow the 14th-most points to WRs — recently Denzel Boston put up 11.9 on them (W1).
8.2 PPR points against KC on 4/6 rec, 42 yd — right on his 7.3 projection (+0.9). The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Pat Bryant projects 7.8 PPR points in week 2 vs JAX — the 14th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 8.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs JAX: 205 passing yards a game allowed (9.32/attempt) · 1 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 14th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how JAX defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 59% offensive snaps · 3.5 targets/game, 12.8% target share · 14.5% air-yard share (aDOT 4.3) · 2 catches for 21 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (13 games): 47.7% offensive snaps, 3.8 targets/game, 11% target share, 16.2% air-yard share (aDOT 8.4), 2.4 catches for 29.1 yards/game, 1 TD. (2025) TD luck: 1 scored vs 2.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.2 · median 5.2 · ceiling 11.5 — 16% chance of 10+, 5% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Pat Bryant in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs JAX | Sun, Sep 20 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 14th |
| W3 | vs LAR | Sun, Sep 27 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 4th · soft |
| W4 | @ SF | Sun, Oct 4 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 28th · tough |
| W5 | @ LAC | Sun, Oct 11 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 19th |
| W6 | vs SEA | Thu, Oct 15 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 30th · tough |
| W7 | @ ARI | Sun, Oct 25 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 16th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | KC | 4/6 rec, 42 yd | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |