PIT — Week 2 at NE, who allow the 30th-most points to TEs — recently AJ Barner put up 1.3 on them (W1).
15.6 PPR points against ATL on 5/5 rec, 46 yd, 1 TD — beat his 7.3 projection by 8.3. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Pat Freiermuth projects 8.9 PPR points in week 2 at NE — the 30th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 15.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs NE: 200 passing yards a game allowed (8.33/attempt) · 1 TDs/gm through the air · 0 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 30th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how NE defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 73% offensive snaps · 5 targets/game, 13.5% target share · 13.5% air-yard share (aDOT 6.8) · 4.5 catches for 39 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 50.4% offensive snaps, 3.6 targets/game, 11.3% target share, 12.6% air-yard share (aDOT 6), 2.7 catches for 32.4 yards/game, 4 TD. (2025) TD luck: 4 scored vs 2.7 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.1 · median 5.4 · ceiling 14.9 — 25% chance of 10+, 10% of 15+, 4% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Pat Freiermuth in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ NE | Sun, Sep 20 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 30th · tough |
| W3 | vs CIN | Sun, Sep 27 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 28th · tough |
| W4 | @ CLE | Thu, Oct 1 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 12th |
| W5 | vs IND | Sun, Oct 11 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 18th |
| W6 | @ TB | Sun, Oct 18 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 4th · soft |
| W7 | @ NO | Sun, Oct 25 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 21st |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | ATL | 5/5 rec, 46 yd, 1 TD | 10.6 | 13.1 | 15.6 |